Nõmme Kalju vs Paide: match statistics
Nõmme Kalju vs Paide: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nõmme Kalju play Paide in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match date is 14 June 2026 at 13:30. Venue: Hiiu staadion. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nõmme Kalju: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Paide: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nõmme Kalju scores 1.65 and concedes 0.80 goals per match. Paide scores 1.60 and concedes 1.40. League average: 3.11 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nõmme Kalju 50%, Paide 70%. Over 2.5: Nõmme Kalju 40%, Paide 55%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.65. Nõmme Kalju: 15.0 shots per match, Paide: 13.7.
Match halves
Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.90. Paide: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.80.
Goals by minute
Nõmme Kalju: 61-75 (9 goals). Paide: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.11 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
6 H2H matches: 0-3-3. Average goals 2.17, BTTS 50%.
Match description
I back the home win (1): Nõmme Kalju, currently 2nd, averages 2.29 goals scored at home and only 0.86 conceded, while Paide (4th) averages 2.00 scored and 1.57 conceded on the road. Form difference is clear over the last five matches: Kalju has 3 wins, 7 goals for and 4 against, averaging 1.8 points per game, whereas Paide has only 1 win, 6 goals scored, 12 conceded and 0.8 points per game. Quality-of-chances analysis confirms this: average xG for Kalju is 1.94 vs 1.65 for Paide, and xG against is 1.24 vs 1.51, indicating a home advantage in chance creation and limitation. Kalju also attempts more shots (16.57 vs 13.71) and more shots on target (5.86 vs 5.14) with similar finishing rates (14% vs 15%), so a higher volume of chances works in their favor. Considering a more stable home defense, superior xG metrics and recent form, I assess probabilities at 65% for the home win, 20% for a draw and 15% for a Paide win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nõmme Kalju | Paide | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Paide is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 2 pts / match - Paide
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 75% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.8 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.4 goals / match - Paide
Nõmme Kalju scores in 85% of matches (17 of 20 matches), while Paide keeps a clean sheet in 20% (4 of 20 matches).
Paide scores in 90% of matches (18 of 20 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 40% (8 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nõmme Kalju
Over / Under — Paide
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.75 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju · 1.55 pts / match - Paide
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Paide - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nõmme Kalju
Paide
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Nõmme Kalju | Liga | Paide | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.45 | 3.11 | ▼ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 66% | ▼ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 23% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 74% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 88% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Nõmme Kalju 0 - 3 - 3 Paide. Average goals 2.17, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
The Meistriliiga match finished Nõmme Kalju 1:1 Paide. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nõmme Kalju and Paide?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Nõmme Kalju won 0, Paide won 3 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 2.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
Nõmme Kalju score 1.65 goals per game on average and Paide 1.60. The Meistriliiga average is 3.11 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Nõmme Kalju's matches and 70% of Paide's.
What form are Nõmme Kalju and Paide in?
Over the last 5 games Nõmme Kalju have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Paide 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nõmme Kalju vs Paide?
The statistical background for Nõmme Kalju vs Paide — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.