North Texas vs Houston Dynamo FC II: match statistics

North Texas have the home advantage: they average 2.08 goals per match at home, compared with Houston Dynamo FC II’s 1.83 goals away from home, and they also create slightly better chances according to xG, 1.83 versus 1.65. The hosts remain unbeaten in 83% of their home matches, winning 42% and drawing 42%, while the visitors have lost as many as 33% of their away fixtures. Current form clearly favors North Texas, who have suffered just one defeat in their last five matches and scored 6 goals, whereas Houston have won none of their last five, scoring only 3 goals and conceding 9. The visitors sit higher in the table, in 4th place compared with their opponents’ 23rd position, but their recent collapse and weaker away defense, conceding an average of 1.50 goals, increase the hosts’ chances. The match could be closely contested, as both teams keep a clean sheet in only 17% of matches at their respective venues, but a narrow North Texas victory is more likely.

Seasonal signals are mixed: North Texas records BTTS in only 31% of matches, whereas Houston Dynamo FC II does so in as many as 83%, clearly above the league average of 63%. The hosts score an average of 2.00 goals, while the visitors average 1.83, with high xG figures of 1.77 and 1.65 respectively. Houston have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season, while North Texas score in 77% of their appearances, strongly supporting a goal for the hosts. The visitors have been less effective recently, scoring just 0.6 goals per match across their last five fixtures, but during this period North Texas have allowed opponents 1.78 xG and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. The offensive quality of both teams, combined with Houston’s very weak defense, which concedes an average of 1.50 goals, slightly favors the BTTS - Yes scenario.

North Texas have solid scoring potential, averaging 2.00 goals per game, while Houston Dynamo FC II concede 1.50; additionally, the hosts’ average xG stands at 1.77 compared with the 1.88 xG allowed by the visitors. At the same time, Houston’s attack has clearly slowed down: across their last five matches, the team has scored just 0.60 goals per game, while North Texas have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their appearances. Both teams have shown a low Over 2.5 hit rate in their last five matches, at 40% and 20% respectively, despite Houston’s season-long data being considerably more goal-oriented. The hosts concede only 0.77 goals per game over the season, limiting the visitors’ chances of producing the scoreline required to go Over 4.0 goals. The projected total of 2.55 goals gives the strongest edge to Under 3.5 goals, particularly as North Texas have recorded Under 3.5 in 77% of their matches this season.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a North Texas win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and did not lead in any of them. Over the course of the season, however, North Texas have shown a clear quality advantage: they average 2.00 goals per match and concede only 0.77, while Houston Dynamo FC II concede 1.50 goals per game. The hosts are also more effective at securing final results, winning 62% of their matches compared with 42% for the visitors, and their average xG stands at 1.77, with 1.23 xG conceded to opponents. Houston’s recent form is poor: the team have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 0.60 goals and conceding 1.80 per game. After half-time, the visitors allow opponents an average of 1.17 goals, rising to 1.40 across their last five appearances, which supports a North Texas turnaround in the second half.