Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: match statistics
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nottingham Forest play Aston Villa in Premier League (England). The match date is 12 April 2026 at 15:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nottingham Forest: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Aston Villa: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nottingham Forest scores 1.26 and concedes 1.34 goals per match. Aston Villa scores 1.47 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nottingham Forest 47%, Aston Villa 58%. Over 2.5: Nottingham Forest 53%, Aston Villa 53%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Aston Villa has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.44. Nottingham Forest: 12.5 shots per match, Aston Villa: 12.7.
Match halves
Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.76. Aston Villa: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.92.
Goals by minute
Nottingham Forest: 76-90+ (13 goals). Aston Villa: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I predict an away win (2). Aston Villa has 16 wins this season versus Nottingham Forest’s 8 and sits 4th in the table while Forest are 16th; over the last 5 matches Villa have averaged 1.8 points per game (3 wins, 2 losses) and Forest 1.6 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Nottingham score only 0.87 goals per home game against an xG of 1.68, underperforming by ~0.81 goals per match and failing to score in 60% of home fixtures; Villa away average is 1.27 goals with xG 1.33 and fail to score in 33% of away games, with a shot conversion rate of 11% versus the hosts’ 6%. Defensively Forest concede 1.27 goals at home, Villa concede 1.47 away, but Villa have a better away record (goal difference -3 vs Forest’s -6 at home) and a higher away win rate (40% vs 20%). Considering Villa’s superior finishing efficiency, lower share of goalless matches and slightly better form in the last 5, I estimate probabilities as follows: home 20%, draw 25%, away 55%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nottingham Forest is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.4 pts / match - Aston Villa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Aston Villa is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.47 goals / match - Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Aston Villa keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
Aston Villa scores in 74% of matches (28 of 38 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nottingham Forest
Over / Under — Aston Villa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Aston Villa is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.21 pts / match - Aston Villa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Aston Villa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Nottingham Forest | Liga | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.61 | 2.75 | • 2.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 56% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 26% | ▼ 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 - 1 Aston Villa. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The Premier League match finished Nottingham Forest 1:1 Aston Villa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest score 1.26 goals per game on average and Aston Villa 1.47. The Premier League average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 58% of Aston Villa's.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in?
Over the last 5 games Nottingham Forest have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Aston Villa 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
The statistical background for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.