Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United: match statistics

Leeds United are showing significantly stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, drawn once, and remain unbeaten. The visitors have scored 12 goals during this period—an average of 2.4 per game—while conceding just 3. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have scored 6 and conceded 7. Forest have won only 1 of their last 5 matches, recording 2 draws and 2 defeats, which translates to an average of 1 point per game compared with Leeds’ 2.6. The goal difference across their last five outings stands at +9 for Leeds and -1 for the hosts, so greater weight should be placed on an away win. A draw remains a realistic outcome due to Forest’s home advantage and the team’s two draws in their recent run.

Leeds are showing very strong defensive form: they have conceded just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, with an average xG conceded of 1.12. Nottingham have scored only 1.2 goals per match during this period, so despite an xG of 1.50, they may struggle to break down their opponents’ well-organized defense. The home side recorded BTTS in 80% of their last five appearances, while Leeds’ rate stands at just 40%, which significantly weakens the case for both teams to score. The visitors should nevertheless create chances, having averaged 2.4 goals, while Forest conceded 1.4 goals and allowed opponents an xG of 1.83. However, the more likely scenario is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team—most notably the home side—will fail to score. This does not automatically imply a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Nottingham Forest averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in their last five matches, while Leeds scored as many as 2.4 goals per game. Leeds have won four of their last five outings, with 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded, raising their attacking projection to 1.60 goals. At the same time, Forest allowed opponents an average of 1.83 xG, while Leeds generated 1.32 xG, and the hosts produced 1.50 xG compared with 1.12 xG conceded by the visitors. The combined projection of 2.90 goals clearly supports at least two goals, although both teams had Over 2.5 goals in 40% of their matches over the last five games, making the 2.5 line noticeably less reliable.

Leeds are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Nottingham Forest have recorded only 1 win and average 1.2 goals scored. The visitors were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Forest were behind at half-time in 40% of such games. The first-half difference is significant, as Leeds averaged 1.2 goals in the opening 45 minutes compared with the hosts’ 0.4. Leeds remain solid after the break: they score an average of 1.2 goals, have conceded no goals in the second halves of their last five matches, and won that period in 60% of cases. The strongest scenario is therefore a Leeds lead at the break followed by them holding their advantage until the final whistle.