Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United: match statistics
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nottingham Forest play Newcastle United in Premier League (England). The match date is 10 May 2026 at 15:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Nottingham Forest: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Newcastle United: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nottingham Forest scores 1.26 and concedes 1.34 goals per match. Newcastle United scores 1.39 and concedes 1.45. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nottingham Forest 47%, Newcastle United 66%. Over 2.5: Nottingham Forest 53%, Newcastle United 63%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Newcastle United has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.44. Nottingham Forest: 12.5 shots per match, Newcastle United: 12.9.
Match halves
Nottingham Forest: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.76. Newcastle United: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.66.
Goals by minute
Nottingham Forest: 76-90+ (13 goals). Newcastle United: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premier League: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
I back the home win (1): Nottingham Forest have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches and won 4 of them, averaging 2.4 points in that period, whereas Newcastle have only 6 goals and 1 win in their last 5 (average 0.6 points). At home Forest generate average xG 1.65 with 14.88 shots and 3.82 shots on target per match, while Newcastle away have xG 1.41 with 11.59 shots and 3.71 on target, indicating the hosts create more and better chances. Despite higher possession for the visitors (53% vs 49% for Forest), Newcastle do not convert that into goals — averaging 0.94 goals per away match — and have conceded 8 goals in the last 5 games versus 6 conceded by Forest in the same period. Season-to-date the hosts have 44 goals scored and the visitors 49, however Forest at home concede 1.24 goals on average (xG against 1.31), and Newcastle away concede 1.29 goals (xG against 1.41), so the superior quality of chances and current form lead me to favor Nottingham. Considering clearly better form (4 wins vs 1), advantage in chance creation (xG 1.65 vs 1.41) and lower PPG for the visitors over the last 5 matches, I estimate probabilities: home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nottingham Forest | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nottingham Forest is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.4 pts / match - Newcastle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Newcastle United is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.39 goals / match - Newcastle United
Nottingham Forest is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.34 goals / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.45 goals / match - Newcastle United
Nottingham Forest scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Newcastle United keeps a clean sheet in 21% (8 of 38 matches).
Newcastle United scores in 76% of matches (29 of 38 matches), while Nottingham Forest keeps a clean sheet in 24% (9 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nottingham Forest
Over / Under — Newcastle United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Newcastle United is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Nottingham Forest · 1.39 pts / match - Newcastle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nottingham Forest - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Newcastle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (21). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Nottingham Forest | Liga | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.61 | 2.75 | • 2.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 56% | ▲ 66% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 53% | 55% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 26% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 72% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 79% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 - 1 Newcastle United. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?
The Premier League match finished Nottingham Forest 1:1 Newcastle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?
Nottingham Forest score 1.26 goals per game on average and Newcastle United 1.39. The Premier League average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 66% of Newcastle United's.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United in?
Over the last 5 games Nottingham Forest have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Newcastle United 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.