Notts County vs Burton Albion: match statistics

Notts County remain unbeaten in their last five matches, but four of those games ended in draws, significantly reducing the hosts’ chances of taking all three points. At home, the team averages 1 goal with an xG of 1.53, but only 2 of their average 16 shots per match are on target, highlighting a clear finishing problem. Burton Albion are more effective away from home: they score an average of 2 goals, register 6 shots on target per match, and convert 15% of their attempts, compared with 6% for Notts County. The visitors won their only away match so far, but have conceded 7 goals in their last five outings, meaning their attacking advantage may not be enough to secure victory. Both teams concede an average of 1 goal in their respective home and away matches, making a draw the most likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear, as in their league matches so far, both Notts County and Burton Albion have recorded BTTS at 100%, with neither team keeping a clean sheet. Burton score an average of 2.0 goals per match, register 6.0 shots on target and create 1.44 xG, which should be enough to test a Notts County defense allowing 0.81 xG. The hosts are less prolific, averaging 1.0 goal and 1.08 xG, but Burton concede an average of 1.0 goal and have allowed opponents 1.4 goals and 1.39 xG per match across their last five fixtures. Recent five-match form also supports the BTTS - Yes option: Notts County recorded it in 60% of matches, while Burton did so in 100%, with both teams averaging 1.4 goals scored. Further confirmation comes from the high league BTTS rate of 71%, making it more likely that each team will score at least one goal.

The projected 2.45 goals are close to the league average of 2.63, but do not indicate a very high-scoring game. In their last 5 matches, Notts County averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while Burton recorded averages of 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded over the same period. The hosts generate an average of 1.08 xG, compared with Burton’s 1.44 xG; however, Notts County’s defensive xG stands at just 0.81, which limits the visitors’ offensive ceiling. Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Notts County’s and 60% of Burton’s last five matches, while neither team has recorded a game with over 3.5 goals so far. The strongest selection is Under 3.5, as it takes at least four goals to lose this bet, and the current goals and xG indicators are more supportive of a 2–3-goal outcome.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as Notts County have drawn 80% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Burton. The hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors were level in 2 of 5, with both teams averaging 0.8 goals scored before half-time. Notts County conceded just 0.2 goals per match in the first halves of their last five games, clearly below Burton’s 0.6, which limits the visitors’ chances of quickly establishing a lead. After the break, both teams have recorded a draw in 60% of their recent matches, while their average second-half goal records stand at 0.6:0.6 for the hosts and 0.6:0.8 for the visitors. Burton have stronger offensive figures over the entire season, averaging 2.0 goals and an xG of 1.44 compared with Notts County’s 1.0 goals and xG of 1.08; therefore, the HT/FT draw/away win outcome remains the main alternative.