NSÍ vs 07 Vestur: match statistics

NSÍ has a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.5 goals per game, register 5 shots on target and have a conversion rate of 11%, while conceding only 0.5 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 50% of matches. 07 Vestur cannot score on the road (0.0 goals per game, FTS 100%) and concedes an average of 2.0 goals away, with only 2 shots on target per match. In terms of quality of chances, home xG is 1.58 versus away xG of 1.53, so although xG is similar, NSÍ’s real edge comes from better conversion (11% vs 0%) and a higher volume of shots on target (5 vs 2). In the last 5 matches NSÍ scored 8 goals and averages 2.0 points per game, while 07 Vestur has conceded 12 goals and averages 0.8 points in that period. Considering NSÍ’s 100% home wins and 07 Vestur’s 100% away defeats, I tip a home victory.

I pick BTTS - Yes because in the last 5 matches NSÍ had BTTS in 80% versus 40% for 07 Vestur, while the league average BTTS is 50%. The home side posts average xG 1.60 and scored 1.6 goals on average in the last 5 matches (8 goals in 5 matches), with an average of 3.5 shots on target, indicating a genuine scoring capability. The visitors in their last 5 matches have xG 1.57 and averaged 1.0 goal (5 goals in 5), and have conceded 9 goals this season, conceding 2.4 goals on average in their last 5, which increases the likelihood of NSÍ scoring. Although season-to-date 07 Vestur shows 0% BTTS and an average of 0.0 goals scored, recent xG and form (1.57 xG for the visitors versus 1.34 xG against the hosts) indicate the visitors can create chances and have a realistic chance of scoring. Therefore I assign 70% to BTTS=Yes and 30% to BTTS=No, based on xG comparisons 1.60 vs 1.62 and 1.57 vs 1.34 and on the recent goal numbers for both teams.

Based on xG and defensive data I project a total of approximately 3.30 goals: NSÍ ~1.64 xG and 07 Vestur ~1.66 xG. For NSÍ I used attacking xG 1.6 and defensive xG of 07 Vestur 1.62 (→1.61) and data from the last 5 matches (1.45/1.89 → 1.67), averaging to 1.64; for 07 Vestur similarly (1.53/2.19 → 1.86 and 1.57/1.34 → 1.46) yielding 1.66. The home side concedes on average 2.5 goals per game and their xG against is 2.19, which together with both teams’ attacks (xG ~1.6 and 1.53) favors a higher-scoring game. A Poisson model at a total of 3.30 gives roughly an 84% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) and about 64% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5). Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (ou_pred_line=1.5, over), while Over 2.5 also looks likely but with a smaller edge.

I predict a draw at half-time because the home side have been level at the break in 50% of their matches this season and in 40% of their last five games, while the home lead at half-time has occurred less often — only in 20% of the last five. In the second half I expect NSÍ to win, since in their last five matches they have won 60% of games and in the second halves of those matches they averaged 1.0 goals while conceding only 0.4. By comparison, the visitors scored an average of 0.8 second-half goals in their last five and have only 0.8 points per game in that sample, whereas the home side collects 2.0 points per game. Season-to-date NSÍ average 1.0 home goals per match, while 07 Vestur have 0.0 points per away match and 0% wins on the road, which reduces the visitors’ chances of holding the half-time draw. On that basis the best bet is X/1 (draw at half-time, home win) and I assign the highest probability to this scenario.