Ntugasaze vs Mbarara City: match statistics

Ntugasaze have lost all 4 of their matches so far, scoring 2 goals and conceding as many as 11, which points to serious defensive problems. Mbarara City have recorded 1 win and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, conceding 5 goals in that period compared with the 11 Ntugasaze have let in across their 4 games. The hosts could still pose a threat: at home, they average 20 shots and register an xG of 2.33, while away from home, the visitors allow their opponents an xG of 1.53. Mbarara City have a cautious edge thanks to their lower average of goals conceded—1 away from home compared with the 3 Ntugasaze concede at home—although the visitors have yet to score in an away match. An away win is therefore the most likely outcome, but their struggles in front of goal on the road leave a genuine chance of a draw or a breakthrough for the hosts.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is the teams’ poor finishing: in their recent matches, Ntugasaze have averaged 0.5 goals and Mbarara City 0.6, with BTTS rates of 50% and 20%, respectively. The hosts have conceded as many as 2.75 goals per match over this period, so an away goal is a realistic possibility, especially given Mbarara City’s average away xG of 1.99. The main question is whether Ntugasaze can score: at home, they average just 6.5 shots, including 3 on target, while Mbarara City have conceded an average of 1.0 goals recently. The hosts’ chance quality, reflected in a home xG of 1.16, leaves room for them to find the net, but both teams’ low scoring output and the league BTTS rate of 38% tilt the assessment toward a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Mbarara City have a clear attacking advantage, averaging 18 shots compared with Ntugasaze’s 6.5, while their xG stands at 1.99 against the hosts’ 1.16. Even so, the visitors have scored an average of just 0.6 goals across their last five appearances, with at least 3 goals scored in only 20% of those matches. The risk of a higher-scoring game is increased by Ntugasaze’s defensive record: they have conceded an average of 2.75 goals per match over their last four games, although the hosts themselves have scored just 0.5 goals per game in that span. With the league average at 2.03 goals and the forecast total at 2.35, Under 3.5 goals remains the strongest pick, with an estimated probability of 79%.

Both of Ntugasaze’s home matches and Mbarara City’s only away match were goalless at half-time, making a draw at the break the strongest-supported outcome. The hosts drew both home games without conceding, while the visitors lost their away match 0–1. Mbarara City do, however, create more chances: they average 18 shots compared with the hosts’ 6.5 and post an xG of 1.99 versus 1.16, so an away win after the break remains a significant possibility. In addition, Ntugasaze have lost their last four matches in the broader sample, conceding an average of 2.75 goals, but Mbarara City have won just one of their last five. With the hosts having drawn both home matches and the league average standing at 2.03 goals per game, a draw at both half-time and full-time remains the most likely outcome.