Nueva Chicago vs San Martín Tucumán: match statistics

I predict a draw because Nueva Chicago records as many as 64% draws and only 9% losses at home, averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.64 conceded in home matches. The hosts create more chances — 11.91 shots and 4.36 on target per match with average xG 1.50, and their home goal difference is +5; San Martín away averages 8.91 shots, 3.09 on target with xG 1.17 and a -3 goal difference. Despite this, the visitors have better form in the last 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 6 goals scored and 1.6 points per match, while Nueva Chicago over the same period has 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 3 goals and 1.0 point per match. Defensively the advantage lies with the hosts — 55% clean sheets versus 36% for San Martín and a lower share of matches without scoring (36% vs 45%), which makes it harder for the visitors to score on the road. As a result, considering the high draw rate for the hosts and the small but visible advantage in xG and shots, the most likely outcome is a draw, with a lower probability of a home win than a draw and the lowest chance for an away victory.

I assess BTTS as less likely and prefer "No". Nueva Chicago concedes an average of 0.64 goals per match and has kept a clean sheet in 55% of the season’s games, while its season BTTS rate is only 36%, which strongly limits the visitors’ scoring chances. San Martín Tucumán scores an average of 0.64 goals this season and has BTTS in 27% of matches, although in the last 5 games it scored 6 goals (1.2 per match), which is a short-term signal. Combined xG for both teams is 1.38 + 1.17 = 2.55, but low shot conversion rates (10% and 7%) and a high clean sheet rate in the league (78%) reduce conversion of that potential. Considering the combined seasonal goals average of 1.82 (1.18 + 0.64), below the league’s 1.88, and the home side’s defensive edge, I give 70% to 'No' and 30% to 'BTTS - Yes'.

Average xG: the home side has xG 1.38, while San Martín’s defence concedes 1.25 xG — yielding ~1.31 expected goals for Nueva Chicago; similarly San Martín has xG 1.17 and the home defence concedes 0.76 xG, giving ~0.97, totalling ~2.28 expected goals. From a Poisson distribution with mean 2.28, the probability of over 1.5 goals is about 67%, which aligns with the seasonal over 1.5 rate of 64% for both teams. The chance of over 2.5 goals is moderate (~40%) and correlates with seasonal figures: 36% for Nueva Chicago and 0% for San Martín (in the last 5 matches San Martín has 40% over 2.5, Nueva Chicago 0%). The hosts average 11.45 shots with a conversion of ~10% (~1.15 goals), while the visitors average 8.91 shots at 7% (~0.62 goals), indicating greater creativity from the home team but not a dominant scoreline. Based on this, the strongest signal is over 1.5 (67% and 2.28 expected goals), hence the recommendation to play over 1.5.

I predict a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). The hosts were level at the break in 6 matches, accounting for 55% of their games at half-time, so a draw after 45 minutes is highly likely. After the break the home side are stronger: their xG is 1.38 versus the visitors’ 1.17, they average 11.45 shots per match versus the opponents’ 8.91 and convert chances at 10% compared to the opponents’ 7%, indicating both more opportunities and greater efficiency. The home defence also looks better on xG against (0.76 vs 1.25 for the visitors) and their half-time goal balance favors the hosts (+3 vs -1), which is why I assign the highest probability to the X/1 scenario (25%), followed by X/X (20%) and 1/1 (18%) as the next most realistic outcomes.