NY Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers: match statistics

NY Cosmos have a slight home advantage: they win 33% of their home fixtures, while Richmond Kickers win just 8% of their away matches and lose as many as 85%. The hosts average 1.17 goals at their own stadium with an xG of 1.66, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents an xG of 2.00 and concedes an average of 2.85 goals away from home. Richmond have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, and fail to score in 38% of their away fixtures; Cosmos have the same issue in only 17% of their home games. Both teams are in similarly poor current form, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats in their last five matches, but the visitors have lost 13 of their last 15 away games. Cosmos’ weak defense, conceding 1.50 goals per game at home, leaves room for a closely contested match, but the data points more clearly toward a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Richmond’s poor current attacking form, having scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches—an average of 0.4 per game—with both teams scoring in only 20% of those fixtures. The visitors have failed to score in 38% of their matches this season, while their average xG across the last five games is just 1.00, compared with NY Cosmos’ 1.72 xG. The hosts should have a good chance of scoring, as Richmond concede an average of 2.85 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of their matches. Although Cosmos have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches, both teams’ season BTTS rate stands at 54%, below the league average of 60%, reinforcing the scenario in which at least one side fails to score.

NY Cosmos average 1.65 xG and 4.69 shots on target per match, while Richmond concede as many as 2.85 goals and 2.00 xG on average, significantly raising the hosts’ projected goal tally. However, the visitors are offensively limited: they have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, with an average xG of 1.00. Richmond have had at least three goals in 69% of their matches this season, but NY Cosmos have exceeded that line in only 38% of games, and the hosts have never conceded more than two goals in a single match. The projected total of 2.70 goals suggests a realistic chance of a 2:0, 2:1 or 1:1 result, but the visitors’ weaker recent finishing limits the likelihood of four goals. Therefore, the strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, also supported by the fact that 85% of NY Cosmos matches have ended with a maximum of three goals.

NY Cosmos possess a clear attacking edge: their average xG stands at 1.65 compared with Richmond’s 1.19, while the hosts average 4.69 shots on target per match against 2.92 for their opponents. Richmond concede an average of as many as 2.85 goals per game, including 1.62 before half-time, whereas Cosmos have taken a lead at the break in 25% of their matches, compared with just 8% for the visitors. In their last five appearances, Richmond have failed to score a single first-half goal, while Cosmos have averaged 0.60 goals in this phase. The hosts’ advantage should persist after the break, as they concede just 0.25 goals in second halves, whereas the Kickers allow opponents to score 1.23 goals. The scenario of Cosmos leading at half-time and securing a full-time victory is therefore most strongly supported by Richmond’s defensive weaknesses and limited attacking efficiency.