Olimpia vs Sportivo Ameliano: match statistics

Olimpia have a clear home advantage: they win 67% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.00 goals and conceding just 0.75, while Sportivo Ameliano score 1.08 goals per away game. The hosts create more chances, averaging 16.42 shots, 5.25 shots on target and an xG of 1.72, compared with the visitors’ 11.50 shots, 3.42 shots on target and xG of 1.14. Olimpia’s defense also looks more solid, keeping clean sheets in 42% of their home matches, whereas Ameliano have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of their away fixtures. Both teams have identical averages of 1.2 points per match over their last five league games, but the visitors have scored just 4 goals during that period and drawn three times. Ameliano’s high 50% away-draw rate increases the risk of a points split; however, Olimpia’s superior attacking quality makes them the more likely winners.

The “No” pick holds a slight but clear edge, as Olimpia concede just 0.93 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 36% of their games. Sportivo Ameliano average 1.08 goals per season, but have scored only 0.8 goals per match across their last five fixtures, while Olimpia allowed opponents an average of 0.91 xG during that period. The hosts are in good attacking form, averaging 1.6 goals and 1.76 xG in their last five appearances, making an Olimpia win to nil a realistic scenario. Although Sportivo Ameliano’s season-long BTTS rate stands at 75%, the recent results of both teams point to a more cautious pattern: BTTS landed in only 20% of Olimpia’s last five matches, while both sides conceded 0.8–1.0 goals per game during that period. In addition, only 36% of Olimpia’s matches and 25% of the visitors’ games went over 2.5 goals, supporting a tight contest in which at least one team is expected to fail to score.

The match profile points to a moderate goal tally: Olimpia average 1.29 goals, while Sportivo Ameliano average 1.08, with the league average standing at 2.46 goals per match. The hosts have an xG of 1.34, whereas the visitors create chances worth an average of 1.14 xG. However, Olimpia concede just 0.93 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 36% of their games. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 79% of Olimpia’s matches or in any of Sportivo Ameliano’s games, and neither team has conceded more than 3 goals in a single match this season. The visitors’ recent form also supports a low-scoring game, as they have scored 4 and conceded 4 goals in their last five matches, with none producing at least 3 goals. The projected total of 2.25 goals offers a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time, as Olimpia were level after 45 minutes in 71% of their matches, while both teams recorded this outcome in 60% of their last five games. The opening stages should be cautious: Olimpia average 0.50 goals before the break and Sportivo Ameliano 0.42, with the visitors failing to score in the first half in any of their last five appearances. After the interval, the advantage should shift to the hosts, who average 0.79 goals compared with their opponents’ 0.67, while their average xG stands at 1.34 against Sportivo’s 1.14. Olimpia also have the higher average number of shots on target, 3.93 to 3.42, while Ameliano keep a clean sheet across the full match in just 8% of games. A draw at half-time followed by an Olimpia win, preferably X/1, best combines the low first-half scoring potential with the hosts’ moderate advantage in the remainder of the match.