Olimpia Zambrów vs Ząbkovia Ząbki: match statistics

I back '1' — a win for Olimpia Zambrów, who are unbeaten in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws) and have scored 12 goals while conceding just 2. On average the home side scores 2.4 goals per match and concedes 0.4 in these five games, whereas Ząbkovia Ząbki averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (9–8 in the last 5), which highlights Olimpia's clear offensive superiority and defensive stability. Olimpia also averages 2.2 points per match in the last five fixtures versus 1.0 points for Ząbkovia — 11 points against 5 — translating to greater effectiveness in securing results. The provided data lack usable xG values and shot statistics (average xG = 0 and no data on shots on target), so the assessment is based primarily on goals and results from the last 5 matches. On that basis I assign a 65% probability to the home win, 20% to a draw and 15% to an away victory.

Statistics from the last 5 matches show BTTS occurred for Olimpia at 40% and for Ząbkowia at 60%, giving a mixed signal but indicating the visitors are more often involved in Goal/Goal games. Olimpia averaged 2.4 scored and 0.4 conceded in the last 5, while Ząbkowia averaged 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded (12 and 9 goals scored and 2 and 8 conceded in the last 5), so both teams possess offensive potential. xG confirms offensive activity: xG for Olimpia 1.86 versus 1.77 for Ząbkowia, with xG against 0.38 for the home side and 1.31 for the visitors, suggesting the hosts generate and limit chances more efficiently. Combined average xG (1.59 for Olimpia and 1.08 for Ząbkowia) translates to just over a 50% likelihood that both sides will score at least once, however Olimpia’s low average goals conceded (0.4) reduces that probability. Considering all numbers and the hosts’ solid form (wddww), I forecast BTTS - Yes as more probable and recommend backing YES.

In the last 5 matches Olimpia Zambrów scored an average of 2.4 goals (12 goals in 5 matches), while Ząbkovia Ząbki averaged 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5 matches), giving a combined average of 4.2 goals. xG shows 1.86 xG for Olimpia versus 1.31 xG conceded by Ząbkovia, which implies roughly 1.59 expected goals for the home side; Ząbkovia has 1.77 xG with 0.38 xG conceded by Olimpia, yielding about 1.07 for the away team. Total expected goals are around 2.66, and both teams have had 60% of matches over 2.5 goals in their last 5 fixtures, which strongly supports Over 2.5 goals. Form and the difference in goals conceded (Olimpia: 'wddww' – 3 wins and 2 draws, 2 goals conceded; Ząbkovia: 'ldwdl' – 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, 8 goals conceded) point to an open, high-scoring game. For these reasons I recommend the Over side and the best line to take is Over 2.5 (approx. 68% probability), while Over 1.5 has a very high probability (~90%).

Olimpia Zambrów led at half-time in 5 of their last 5 matches (100%), scoring on average 2.0 goals by the break while conceding 0.0, which indicates a clear home-side advantage in the first half. Over full time Olimpia won 3 of those 5 matches (60% win rate); they average 2.4 goals scored per match versus Ząbkovia’s 1.8 and concede only 0.4 on average compared with 1.6 for the away side, so maintaining the lead is probable. Additionally, the average points at half-time were 3.0 for Olimpia versus 1.0 for Ząbkovia, and of the 5 instances where Olimpia held a lead at the break, 3 finished as wins (60%) and 2 as draws (40%), hence the natural split of HT outcomes. On this basis I recommend the 1/1 HT/FT as the strongest option (approx. 51%); 1/X is assessed at about 34%, while the remaining scenarios carry low shares.