Olympic Safi vs Raja Casablanca: match statistics

Raja Casablanca is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the league versus Olympic Safi’s 16th and have 15 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 3. In the last 5 matches Raja scored 10 goals and averages 2.0 points per match (record 3-1-1), while Olympic scored 4 goals in their last five, have no wins and average 0.8 points per match. At home Olympic average 0.86 goals per match with an xG of 1.34 (underperforming vs expectations), register 10.07 shots with 3.86 on target, but conversion is only 9%. Raja away average 1.21 goals per match with xG 1.21, 9.07 shots (3.64 on target) and a better conversion of 13%, and their defense concedes only 0.93 goals away with a 43% clean sheet rate. Considering the advantage in wins 15 vs 3, better form 2.0 vs 0.8 pts/5 and significantly stronger defense 0.93 vs 1.43 goals conceded per match, I favor the away win.

I forecast BTTS - Yes because in the last 5 matches Olympic Safi have BTTS at 60% and Raja Casablanca 80%, yielding an average of 70% versus the league average of 52%. Raja is in clear attacking form: 10 goals in the last 5 games (2.0 avg) compared to Olympic Safi’s 4 goals (0.8), and Olympic Safi have conceded 1.0 goal per game in that period, increasing the likelihood of visitors scoring. xG analysis shows Olympic Safi with xG_for 1.55 and xG_against_away 1.38, while Raja have xG_for 1.21 and xG_against_home 0.86, so the comparisons 1.55 vs 1.38 and 1.21 vs 0.86 suggest real chances of goals from both sides. Counterarguments are the hosts’ seasonal figures: Olympic Safi’s season BTTS rate is only 27% and they have 60% clean sheets, which historically lowers the probability of both teams scoring. Despite the hosts’ defensive seasonal tendencies, the strong signal from the last 5 matches and Raja’s attacking superiority lead to a BTTS assessment of roughly 70% versus 30% No BTTS.

Averaging the home attack xG (1.55) and the xG that Raja typically concedes (1.38) gives 1.46 expected goals for Olympic Safi; similarly, averaging Raja’s attack xG (1.21) and the xG conceded by the hosts (0.86) yields 1.04 for the visitors, totalling 2.50 goals. From this sum, the probabilistic distribution suggests roughly a 71% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 46% for Over 2.5 and around 24% for Over 3.5. Seasonal indicators support Over 1.5: Olympic Safi matches have a 53% share of Over 1.5, Raja’s matches 71%, and both teams show very high Over 0.5 rates – 87% and 93%. Counterarguments are the low frequency of Over 2.5 in their seasons (only 20% and 21%) and the fact both teams have just 7% of matches above 3.5; additionally Olympic Safi has 60% clean sheets, and in the last 5 games the hosts have averaged only 0.8 goals. Therefore the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (I recommend backing the line at 1.5), because the 1.46 vs 1.04 combination and the 2.50 total imply about a 71% probability of at least two goals, while the 2.5 and 3.5 lines are far less convincing.

The half-time draw/full-time home win scenario (X/1) appears most likely, as Olympic Safi holds a clear xG advantage (1.55 vs 1.21) and a higher home points-per-game average (2.07 vs 1.57). I expect a level score at the break: in the last five matches the visitors have scored eight first-half goals compared to three for the hosts, and their recent form is WWLDW with a 60% win rate in that sample, indicating an aggressive start. The second half favors Olympic Safi — the hosts average 0.8 goals after the break versus 0.5 for the visitors, have accrued 26 points in second halves compared to 16 for their opponents, and have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 for the visitors, so they are capable of a turnaround. Additionally, the hosts defend more solidly (seasonal goals conceded 0.4 per match versus 0.93 for the visitors and an average of 0.07 goals conceded before half-time versus 0.21), which reduces the risk of surrendering a lead after the break. Therefore X/1 is my pick, with alternatives being draw/draw (X/X) or draw/full-time away win (X/2) due to the visitors’ offensive form in the last five matches (an average of 2.0 goals per game).