One Knoxville vs NY Cosmos: match statistics

One Knoxville (3rd) holds a clear advantage over NY Cosmos (17th): the hosts have 6 wins this season versus Cosmos' 2, and at home they concede 0.83 goals while scoring 1.17 per game, whereas Cosmos on the road score 1.0 and concede 3.0. One Knoxville creates more opportunities — on average 15.83 shots and 5.67 on target at home with xG 1.82, while Cosmos away average 12 shots, 3.4 on target and xG 1.35. In the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 6 and conceded 6 (0.0? average 1.2 conceded per game) and average 1.0 point per game, whereas Cosmos have scored 6 and conceded 14 (2.8 conceded on average) and average 0.6 points per game; additionally Cosmos have lost all away matches (100% defeats) and have no clean sheets away (0%). Defensively the hosts look more solid — 50% clean sheets at home and an actual 0.83 goals conceded versus xG against 1.18 suggest an edge over Cosmos, who have xG against 1.64 away. Due to game control (58% possession vs 48%), a higher number of shots on target and the visitors' extremely weak away defense, I forecast a home win.

Both teams have a very high seasonal tendency for BTTS: One Knoxville 80% and NY Cosmos 80% (league 57%), which strongly increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. One Knoxville averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 1.8 per match, while NY Cosmos score 1.0 and concede 3.0 (24 conceded this season), which favors goals from both sides. xG confirms the risk of goals from both teams: home xG 1.62 with xG_against 1.68, away xG_for 1.35 with xG_against 1.64, and shots on target 5.0 vs 3.4 and conversion 14% vs 8% translate into approximately 1.8 and 1.0 goals. In the last 5 matches BTTS occurred 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side, and with NY Cosmos having 0% clean sheets expected the both-teams-to-score scenario becomes even more likely. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 78% and No at 22%.

Both teams have 100% of matches this season with at least 2 goals, so Over 1.5 is very likely — I rate it at 98%. The xG-based model (One Knoxville xG = 1.62, NY Cosmos xG = 1.35) and defensive data (Cosmos concede on average 3.0 goals per match, One Knoxville opponents generate on average 1.68 xG against them) produce expected goals of 1.63 for the home side and 1.52 for the visitors, totaling 3.15 goals. One Knoxville averages 5.0 shots on target with a 14% conversion rate, while the Cosmos have 3.4 shots on target and 8% conversion; the visitors have conceded 24 goals this season and conceded 14 in their last 5 matches (avg 2.8). Season over-2.5 shares are 80% for the home team and 100% for the away team, and over-3.5 are 60% and 80% — therefore I would rate Over 2.5 at around 80% and Over 3.5 at around 55%. Based on this, the best and most reliable line to play is Over 1.5, with a strong signal also for Over 2.5.

At half-time a draw is more likely: the home side were level at the break in 60% of matches, while they led in only 20% of games, which is a strong signal for HT X. After 90 minutes the favorites are the hosts — One Knoxville score on average 1.8 goals per game versus 1.0 for NY Cosmos, and the visitors concede on average 3.0 goals per game, which increases the hosts’ chance of victory. Supporting this view are the attacking numbers and the second half: the home team have higher xG (1.62 vs 1.35), more shots on target (5.0 vs 3.4) and better conversion (14% vs 8%), and in second halves they score on average 1.2 goals and have a 60% share of second-half wins. Additionally, the last five matches show visitors’ weakness (wllll) versus the hosts (lldwd), therefore the scenario of a draw at the break and a home win (HT/FT X/1) I assess as most likely. I assign X/1 about a 36% probability, with X/X about 18% and 1/1 about 15% as realistic alternatives.