Oulu vs Ilves: match statistics
Oulu vs Ilves: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Oulu played Ilves in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 2 August 2026. Venue: Raatin stadion. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Oulu: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Ilves: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Oulu scores 1.24 and concedes 1.24 goals per match. Ilves scores 1.71 and concedes 1.76. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Oulu 47%, Ilves 65%. Over 2.5: Oulu 41%, Ilves 71%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Ilves has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.33. Oulu: 11.4 shots per match, Ilves: 11.7.
Match halves
Oulu: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.82. Ilves: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.82.
Goals by minute
Oulu: 61-75 (6 goals). Ilves: 16-30 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-2. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Oulu has a clear statistical home advantage: 71% home wins, an average of only 0.71 goals conceded per home match and 43% clean sheets, with home xG 1.36 and xG against 1.15. Ilves shows weak away metrics: only 11% away wins, an average of 2.44 goals conceded on the road and 0% clean sheets, although they score 1.67 goals per away match and register more shots on target (5.11 vs 4.29). Recent form favors the visitors — Ilves have won 3 of their last 5, scored 7 goals and average 2.0 points per game, while Oulu have not won in that span (0 wins), scored 3 and conceded 12, averaging 0.4 points per game. xG comparison indicates Ilves generate slightly higher-quality chances (xG 1.55 away vs Oulu’s 1.36 at home), but the hosts’ superior defense (xG against 1.15 and just 0.71 goals conceded at home) should mitigate the risk. Considering Oulu’s strong home record and Ilves’ improving form, I predict a home win with probability distribution approximately 55% Oulu, 25% draw and 20% Ilves win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I pick BTTS - Yes because Ilves has a season away BTTS rate of 89% with 0% clean sheets on the road, strongly favoring both teams scoring. Oulu at home has a season BTTS of only 38% and keeps a clean sheet in 63% of matches; however, in their last 5 home games they scored 3 and conceded 12 (avg. 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded per match), and their recent home BTTS is 60%. Ilves in the last 5 matches scored 7 and conceded 3 (avg. 1.4 and 0.6) and has recent xG 1.34 vs xG against 1.15, which demonstrates a genuine goal-scoring capability. Additionally Ilves averages 13.56 shots and 5.11 on target versus Oulu’s 9.5 and 4.5, and season xG 1.55 vs 1.29 increases the likelihood that both teams will find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Aggregate xG indicates high scoring potential: Oulu’s attacking xG is 1.29 and Ilves 1.55; taking the average of their attack and opponent xG ((1.29+1.80)/2 and (1.55+1.39)/2) yields expected goals of 1.55 for Oulu and 1.47 for Ilves, totalling 3.02 goals. 3.02 is clearly above the league average of 2.65, which in a Poisson model translates to roughly an 80% probability of more than 1.5 goals in the match. Seasonal metrics support this assessment: Ilves has 100% of matches over 1.5 and 89% over 2.5, Oulu 63% and 50% respectively, bolstering the likelihood of over 1.5–2.5. The last 5 matches also show weak Oulu defense (3 goals for, 12 conceded in last 5, averaging 2.4 conceded) versus Ilves (7 for, 3 conceded), increasing the risk of a higher goal count. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (≈80%), Over 2.5 has moderate support (≈58%), and Over 3.5 is less certain (≈36%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is Oulu leading at half-time and maintaining the win to full-time — the hosts led at the break in 50% of their matches this season and have a 63% win rate versus Ilves’s 11% wins. First-half metrics favor Oulu: on average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded by half-time, while Ilves averages 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded in the first half. Additionally, Oulu record clean sheets at half-time in 75% of matches and a 63% overall clean-sheet rate, and their shot conversion is 18% versus Ilves’s 12%, supporting the maintenance of a lead. Conversely, Ilves generate higher xG (1.55 vs 1.29) and their matches finish BTTS in 89% of cases; in the last five meetings Ilves have a 60% win rate with Oulu averaging 0.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, hence a relative contribution of 1/X and X/1 scenarios. In summary, Oulu’s seasonal advantages in leading at the break (50%), win rate (63%) and clean sheets (63%) provide the strongest signal for HT/FT 1/1, but the risk of an Ilves turnaround justifies a moderate probability of a draw at half-time.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Oulu | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ilves is 250% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Oulu · 1.4 pts / match - Ilves
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ilves is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.24 goals / match - Oulu · 1.71 goals / match - Ilves
Oulu is 42% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.24 goals / match - Oulu · 1.76 goals / match - Ilves
Oulu scores in 76% of matches (13 of 17 matches), while Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 29% (5 of 17 matches).
Ilves scores in 94% of matches (16 of 17 matches), while Oulu keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Oulu
Over / Under — Ilves
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ilves is 31% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.12 pts / match - Oulu · 1.47 pts / match - Ilves
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Oulu - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ilves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 35%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (6 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Oulu
Ilves
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| Oulu | Liga | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.47 | 2.61 | ▲ 3.47 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 50% | ▲ 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 41% | 46% | ▲ 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 35% | 28% | • 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 77% | ▲ 88% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 76% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Oulu 0 - 1 - 2 Ilves. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Oulu vs Ilves?
The Veikkausliiga match finished Oulu 1:0 Ilves. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Oulu and Ilves?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Oulu won 0, Ilves won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Oulu vs Ilves?
Oulu score 1.24 goals per game on average and Ilves 1.71. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Oulu's matches and 65% of Ilves's.
What form are Oulu and Ilves in?
Over the last 5 games Oulu have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Ilves 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Oulu vs Ilves?
The statistical background for Oulu vs Ilves — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.