Palmeiras vs Bahia: match statistics
Palmeiras vs Bahia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Palmeiras played against Bahia in Serie A (Brazil). The game was played on October 9, 2026. Venue: Allianz Parque. Final score: 1:0.
Recent form
Palmeiras has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Bahia has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Palmeiras scores 1.68 goals per game and allows 0.75. Bahia scores 1.54 and allows 1.25. Games in this league average 2.67 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 57% of Palmeiras's games and 68% of Bahia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 54%, compared with league averages of 60% for BTTS and 52% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Palmeiras has the higher season xG average, 1.62 to 1.61 per game. Palmeiras takes 14.9 shots per game, while Bahia takes 14.5.
First-half and second-half trends
Palmeiras leads at halftime in 50% of its games and scores 0.82 goals per game after halftime. Bahia leads at halftime in 36% and scores 0.68 after halftime.
When the teams score
Palmeiras's most productive scoring window is minutes 16-30 (9 goals). For Bahia, it is minutes 31-45+ (13 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie A games average 2.67 goals. Both teams score in 60% of games, and 52% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Palmeiras are the favorites at home: they have won 69% of their home matches, while Bahia have won 43% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.77 goals scored and just 0.69 conceded on home soil, whereas the visitors average 1.5 goals both scored and conceded away from home. The quality of chances also favors Palmeiras: their home xG is 1.71, while Bahia allow chances worth an average xG of 1.90 away. However, the visitors are in better recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 11 goals in the process, compared with Palmeiras’ 2 wins and 5 goals. Even so, the hosts’ solid defense—conceding just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, against Bahia’s 7—tips the prediction in their favor.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS has landed in 71% of Palmeiras matches and 64% of Bahia matches, both above the league average of 59%. Both teams score regularly: Palmeiras average 1.57 goals per match, while Bahia average 1.50, and they have failed to score in only 7% and 14% of their matches, respectively. The hosts’ chances of scoring are further boosted by Bahia conceding an average of 1.50 goals and allowing opponents chances worth 1.90 xG. The main obstacle to BTTS - Yes is Palmeiras’ defense, which has conceded just 0.60 goals per match across its last 5 games. Bahia have nevertheless scored 11 goals over that period, and 4 of their 5 matches ended with BTTS, making it more likely that both teams will score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is for at least 2 goals: this threshold was reached in 93% of Palmeiras matches and 79% of Bahia matches. Palmeiras average 1.57 goals scored, while Bahia concede 1.50; in addition, the hosts’ xG is 1.73 compared with the 1.90 xG conceded by the visitors. Bahia can also get on the scoresheet, averaging 1.50 goals, although Palmeiras concede just 1.00. The 2.5 line is less certain: it was exceeded in 50% of Palmeiras matches and 57% of Bahia matches, while in the teams’ last 5 matches the figures were 20% and 80%, respectively. Therefore, with a forecast of 2.75 total goals, I favor Over 1.5 as a clearer signal than the other lines.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Palmeiras hold a slight edge before the break: they average 0.93 goals in first halves compared with Bahia’s 0.79, while conceding 0.64 against their opponents’ 0.71. The home side also generate an average of 1.73 xG per match, compared with 1.48 for the visitors, while Bahia allow opponents 1.90 xG, compared with 1.20 for Palmeiras. The hosts’ defense supports the prospect of them maintaining their lead, conceding an average of 0.36 goals after the break, compared with Bahia’s 0.79. The signal is not strong, however: both teams were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, and Bahia won 4 of those 5 games. Even so, the combination of the home side’s advantage in chance creation and their more solid defense makes Palmeiras to lead at the break and win the match the most likely single HT/FT scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Palmeiras | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Bahia is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Palmeiras · 2.4 pts / game - Bahia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palmeiras is 9% better for: goals scored per game.
1.68 goals / game - Palmeiras · 1.54 goals / game - Bahia
Palmeiras is 67% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.75 goals / game - Palmeiras · 1.25 goals / game - Bahia
Palmeiras scores in 86% of games (24 of 28 games), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 29% (8 of 28 games).
Bahia scores in 89% of games (25 of 28 games), while Palmeiras keeps a clean sheet in 43% (12 of 28 games).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Palmeiras
Over / Under - Bahia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palmeiras is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.96 pts / game - Palmeiras · 1.43 pts / game - Bahia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Palmeiras - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 50% of games and wins 57%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 36% of games and wins 43%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals per game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Palmeiras
Bahia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Palmeiras | Liga | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.43 | 2.67 | ▲ 2.79 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 57% | 60% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 23% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 75% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 79% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Palmeiras's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses against Bahia. Games average 1.67 goals, and both teams scored in 33% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Palmeiras vs Bahia?
The Serie A match finished Palmeiras 1:0 Bahia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Bahia?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Palmeiras won 1, Bahia won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras score 1.68 goals per game on average and Bahia 1.54. The Serie A average is 2.67 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Palmeiras's matches and 68% of Bahia's.
What form are Palmeiras and Bahia in?
Over the last 5 games Palmeiras have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Bahia 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
The statistical background for Palmeiras vs Bahia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.