Pars Jam Bushehr vs Navad Urmia: match statistics

Pars Jam Bushehr is the clear favorite — 5th in the table versus Navad Urmia’s 17th, with 33 goals scored this season compared to 15 by the visitors. In the last 5 matches the home side have scored 5 goals, recorded 2 wins and 3 draws (avg. 1.8 points per game), while Navad have failed to score in their last 5 fixtures and average only 0.4 points per game. Defensively Pars Jam performs better: they concede 0.6 goals per home match on average and keep clean sheets in 60% of games, whereas Navad concede 1.2 goals away and have a 20% clean sheet rate. The visitors’ attack is ineffective — away goals average 0.33 with shot conversion around 4% and away xG 0.79 versus xG against 1.3, indicating a lack of high-quality chances. Considering the goal-difference advantage (+6 at home vs -13 for the visitors) and Navad’s five-match goalless run, I project a home win.

I predict no BTTS with an 80% probability for “No” vs 20% for “Yes”. Pars Jam averages 0.71 goals scored and concedes 1.00 per match, while Navad has just 0.33 scored and 1.20 conceded; seasonal BTTS is 36% for the home side and 27% for the away, and league BTTS level is only 30%. In the last 5 matches Pars Jam scored 5 and conceded 1 (averaging 1.0 and 0.2), whereas Navad in their last 5 did not score at all and conceded 10 (0.0 and 2.0), with their recent xG for at 0.0. Additionally, the home team keeps a clean sheet in 43% of games, the league has as many as 94% of matches with a clean sheet, and the away side maintains a clean sheet in only 20% of matches, which reinforces the scenario that Navad will not score (No Goal / clean sheet expected).

After weighing seasonal and recent stats I project expected goals of 1.22 for Pars Jam and 0.53 for Navad, giving a combined estimated total of 1.75 goals. Seasonally the home side score 0.71 on average and the away side 0.33, while defensively the visitors concede 1.20 per match; in the last 5 matches the visitors conceded on average 2.0 goals whereas the hosts scored 1.0, which partially increases the chance of multiple goals. xG data shows the visitors’ xG at 0.79 while the hosts’ xG source is 0.0 (no data), suggesting a moderate attacking output from the visitors and that any goals stem primarily from their weak defense. The share of matches over 1.5 is 57% for the home team and 47% for the away team – the Poisson model gives over 1.5 at about 52% – whereas over 2.5 occurred in only 14%/20% of cases and our estimate is roughly a 26% chance for Over 2.5 goals. Seasonal over 3.5 values are 7% for the home side and 0% for the away side, and the calculated probability for Over 3.5 is about 10%, so I choose Under 3.5 as the best line, supported by a high seasonal under 3.5 rate (93% for the home team and 100% for the away team) and the predicted total of 1.75.

Pars Jam led at half-time in 4 of 14 home matches (29%), while a half-time draw occurred in 7 of 14 home fixtures (50%); Navad have never led at the break (0% in 14 matches). The hosts average 0.43 goals by half-time versus 0.07 for the visitors, and 0.71 goals per match overall compared to 0.33 for Navad, indicating low offensive efficiency for both sides. The season-long percentage of home draws is 57% of matches, and in the last five fixtures Pars Jam average 1.8 points per game versus 0.4 for the visitors, so the hosts are marginally better but not dominant. Additionally, the hosts have 71% clean halves at half-time, and the league average goals per game is only 1.52, favoring low-scoring, draw-prone outcomes. Based on these specific figures, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X).