Partick Thistle vs Arbroath: match statistics

Partick Thistle have avoided defeat at home, winning 2 of their 4 matches, while Arbroath have lost 3 of their 4 away games. The hosts’ biggest advantage is their defense: they have yet to concede at home, whereas the visitors average 2 goals conceded away and have failed to keep a clean sheet. Partick also create better chances, averaging 1.56 xG at home compared with Arbroath’s 0.93 xG away. Caution is warranted, however, as the hosts score just 0.75 goals per game at home and have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches. Although Arbroath scored 4 goals in that period compared with Partick’s 2, their 7 goals conceded and failure to score in 75% of away games point to a home win.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Arbroath’s poor scoring record: they average just 0.5 goals away from home and fail to score in 75% of their matches. Partick Thistle concede an average of 0.5 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Although Arbroath concede an average of 2.0 goals away, the hosts average 1.0 goal at home, so the visitors’ greater defensive vulnerability does not necessarily mean both teams will score. BTTS has landed in 50% of Partick’s home matches and just 25% of Arbroath’s away matches, while the league-wide rate is 33%. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: none of Partick Thistle’s matches so far have gone above this line, compared with 25% for Arbroath. The hosts concede an average of 0.5 goals, while the visitors score an average of 0.5 goals and have failed to score in 75% of their matches. Across their last five games, Partick have scored and conceded 0.4 goals per match, while Arbroath have scored 0.8 and conceded 1.4. The visitors’ weaker defense, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game this season, gives the hosts a chance to score, but with a projected total of 1.9 goals, a game featuring at least four goals remains unlikely.

Partick Thistle have not conceded before half-time in any of their 4 matches so far, while Arbroath have been trailing at the break in 3 of 4 and have conceded an average of 1.25 goals in the first half. This points to the hosts taking the lead at the break, although Partick themselves were level at half-time in 3 of 4 matches, so a goalless first half remains a realistic alternative. Across the full match, Partick average 1.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Arbroath average 0.5 scored and 2.0 conceded, increasing the likelihood that the hosts would hold on to any lead. After the break, Partick average 0.5 goals scored, while Arbroath concede 0.75, giving the 1/1 scenario a slight edge over X/X and X/1. However, this is not a strong pick: Partick’s xG is just 0.56 compared with Arbroath’s 0.93, and the hosts have failed to score after half-time in each of their last 5 matches.