Partick Thistle vs Raith Rovers: match statistics

Partick Thistle remain unbeaten at home, winning 2 of their 3 matches and keeping a clean sheet in each, with an average xG against of 0.85. However, the hosts create only a moderate number of chances: their average xG stands at 1.26, they score an average of 1 goal at home, and they failed to find the net in 33% of such matches. Raith Rovers are the league leaders and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 10 goals during that run, but they generate just 0.95 xG per away game. The visitors are highly clinical, converting 24% of their shots compared with Partick’s 17%, but the hosts’ perfect clean-sheet record should limit that advantage. The combination of Raith’s solid form and Partick’s exceptionally tight home defensive record points most strongly towards a closely fought draw.

The signal for BTTS - No is clear, as both teams scored in only 33% of their league matches, with this figure falling to 20% for each side across their last five fixtures. Partick Thistle have a very tight defense: they concede an average of 0.33 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 67% of their outings, and allow opponents just 0.45 xG on average. Raith Rovers score an average of 1.33 goals, but create only 0.95 xG per match and register 3.67 shots on target, which limits their chances of breaking down the hosts’ defense. The home side are the offensive favorites, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.98 xG, but a one-sided result—especially with a Partick Thistle clean sheet—looks more likely than a Goal/Goal outcome. Additionally, the league records BTTS in just 38% of matches, while as many as 72% of games feature at least one clean sheet.

Partick Thistle’s last five matches produced an average of just 1.2 total goals, with the team scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.4 per game. Raith Rovers are in better offensive form, averaging 2.0 goals across their last five matches, while also conceding only 0.4 goals per game during that period. None of the hosts’ last five games went Over 2.5 goals, while this occurred in 40% of the visitors’ matches; both teams scored in only 20% of matches for each side. The league context also points towards a lower-scoring outcome: the average stands at 2.03 goals, and just 24% of matches go Over 2.5. A projected total of 2.10 goals leaves a clear margin below four goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest selection.

Raith Rovers are in clearly superior recent form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 victories for Partick Thistle. The visitors led at the break in 80% of their last five games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceding none during that phase. Over the same period, Partick scored just 0.8 goals before the break and went into half-time trailing in 20% of their matches. The hosts’ seasonal home advantage is significant, as they average 1.98 xG while allowing opponents just 0.45 xG; however, their recent average is only 0.8 goals, compared with 2.0 for Raith. The strongest scenario is therefore a 2/2 HT/FT outcome, with the visitors leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle, although Partick’s solid defensive record also increases the likelihood of draw-related outcomes.