Peñarol vs Liverpool FC Montevideo: match statistics

Peñarol holds a clear home advantage: they have scored 17 goals this season and average 2.0 goals per home match, averaging 13.8 shots per game with 5.6 on target. Their home xG is 1.61 versus xG against 1.05, while Liverpool’s away xG for is 1.33 and xG against 1.36, indicating the hosts create more high-value chances and concede fewer quality opportunities. In the last 5 matches Peñarol scored 9 goals and average 2 points per game, whereas Liverpool scored 6, conceded 9 and averages only 0.6 points per game with 0 wins. Defensively this also favors the hosts: Peñarol conceded 4 goals in their last 5 matches (0.8 per game) compared to Liverpool’s 9 conceded (1.8 per game), and the hosts have 0% clean sheets at home versus 20% of away matches without a goal for the opponent for the visitor. Based on these specific figures I assess the probability of a Peñarol win at 66%, draw 20% and a Liverpool win 14%.

Liverpool's seasonal BTTS rate is 60% versus Peñarol's 40%, with the league average at 49%, which already favors the Both Teams To Score market. In the last 5 matches Peñarol has BTTS 60%, scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8, while Liverpool in the last 5 has BTTS 40%, scores 1.2 and concedes 1.8 — Peñarol is in better attacking form and Liverpool concedes more often. Combined xG is 1.49 + 1.33 = 2.82, above the league average of 2.42, indicating a sufficient number of goalscoring chances on both sides. Peñarol keeps a clean sheet in 40% of games, and Liverpool only in 20%, meaning Liverpool is more likely to concede — this further increases the BTTS probability, hence the choice of "yes" at 62%.

The xG-based model (home xG 1.49 and xG against for away 1.36) yields an expected 1.43 goals for Peñarol and 1.24 for Liverpool, totaling 2.67 goals. Season indicators show Peñarol scored over 1.5 goals in 80% of matches and Liverpool in 60%, which strongly signals Over 1.5 (I therefore ascribe ~82% probability). For the 2.5 line both teams have 40% of season matches Over 2.5, and the league average for Over 2.5 is 45%; however the combined xG of 2.67 slightly favors Over 2.5, so I assess its probability at ~56%. The 3.5 line is unlikely: seasonally Over 3.5 occurs in only 20% of matches for both teams, and the expected total of 2.67 is well below that threshold (hence Over 3.5 ~22%). Additionally, Peñarol scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 avg) and conceded 4 (0.8), while Liverpool scored 6 and conceded 9 in their last 5, which supports Over 1.5 as the most reliable play.

The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: both teams record a draw in the first half in 60% of their matches, so I assess the combined share of HT draw scenarios at 60% (X/1=12%, X/X=22%, X/2=26%). After the match the favorite appears to be the visitors — Liverpool have a seasonal win rate of 40% versus Peñarol’s 20% and average 1.6 points per match compared to the home side’s 1.0, which increases the likelihood of an away win after a draw. Peñarol generate higher xG (1.49 vs 1.33) and more shots (12.8 vs 10.2), but Liverpool have a higher conversion rate (14% vs 9%), so a smaller number of chances may be enough for the visitors to turn the result. At the same time the home side’s last-five form (60% wins and an average of 1.8 points gained by half-time in that period) and Peñarol’s three goals in minutes 31–45 suggest that the X/X and X/1 scenarios also make sense, hence I assign them 22% and 12%. Based on this I recommend the HT/FT pick: X/2 (draw at half-time, away win) as the strongest single scenario with a 26% probability.