Persib vs Arema: match statistics

Persib holds a clear statistical advantage: at home they have won 100% of matches, score an average of 2.00 goals and concede only 0.21 goals per game, with 86% of matches ending in clean sheets. Arema sits 11th and has only a 29% win rate on the road, scores 1.14 goals and concedes 1.21 goals per away match, and remains goalless in 21% of away fixtures. Persib generates home xG of 1.64 and 5.79 shots on target per game, while Arema posts an away xG of 1.37 and 4.00 shots on target, with a conversion rate of 13% versus 10% for the visitors, indicating higher quality and efficiency in the hosts’ chances. In the last 5 matches Persib scored 11 goals (3 wins, 2 draws, PPG 2.2), while Arema scored 8 goals (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, PPG 1.4), which confirms the hosts’ better form. Considering the 100% home record, 0% FTS and very low average goals conceded of 0.21, I tip a Persib victory; a draw or an Arema win are significantly less likely.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Persib 71% and Arema 64%, against a league average of 56%, indicating an above-average likelihood of both teams scoring in this match. In the last 5 matches both sides show a BTTS rate of 60%, with Persib averaging 2.2 goals (Arema 1.6) and average goals conceded 1.0 and 1.4 respectively — Persib creates more scoring, while Arema concedes regularly. xG analysis also favors BTTS: Persib produces xG 1.48 and allows xG 1.33, whereas Arema produces xG 1.37 and allows xG 1.69 — the higher xG against Arema (1.69) indicates Arema gives opponents chances to score. Additionally Persib at home has 71% of matches over 2.5 goals and 64% of cases combining over 2.5 and BTTS, while low clean sheets at 21% for both teams reduce the probability of a goalless outcome. In summary, considering the average BTTS of both teams (~67.5%) along with form and xG, I assess the 'BTTS = Yes' scenario at approximately 75% versus 25% for 'No'.

Based on xG Persib has xG_for 1.48 and Arema xG_against 1.69 — averaging about 1.59 expected goals for Persib; similarly Arema has xG_for 1.37 against Persib xG_against 1.33, yielding about 1.35 for Arema, i.e. a total ≈2.94 goals. With λ=2.94 the Poisson distribution gives P(≥2)≈79.2% (P(0 or 1)≈20.8%), P(≥3)≈56.3% and P(≥4)≈33.9%. This aligns with seasonal indicators: Persib has over 1.5 in 86% of matches and over 2.5 in 71%, Arema 79% and 43% respectively, and the league averages 2.73 goals per match; BTTS is 71% for Persib and 64% for Arema. Additionally Persib averages 11.93 shots (4.43 on target) with a 14% conversion, Arema 11.79 (4.0 on target) and 10% conversion, supporting a higher number of scoring opportunities. Consequently the strongest signal from the data is over 1.5 (Over) with probability around 79%, while over 2.5 is moderately likely (56%) and over 3.5 is too risky (34%).

Persib shows a clear advantage in the first half: they led at the break in 43% of matches this season, and in the last 5 fixtures they led at half-time in 80%, with a first-half goals average of 0.64 versus Arema's 0.29. Over the full match Persib scores 1.71 goals per game versus Arema's 1.14 and posts a higher xG (1.48 vs 1.37); Persib’s season win rate is 43% (last 5: 60%) versus Arema’s 29% (last 5: 40%). Arema tend to start more poorly — they were behind after 45 minutes in 43% of matches and concede on average 0.64 goals in the first half — which increases the likelihood of the home side leading at half-time. For these reasons the strongest signal is a Persib lead at half-time and Persib win (HT/FT 1/1), which I assign a 40% probability; alternatives are half-time draw with a later Persib win (HT/FT X/1 12%) or draw/draw (HT/FT X/X 15%), since a half-time draw occurs seasonally in roughly 36% of matches for both teams.