Persijap vs Borneo: match statistics

Borneo is the clear favorite: this season they have 24 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses and have scored 67 goals, while Persijap have 9 wins, 7 draws, 16 losses and 31 goals. In the last 5 matches the visitors have won all 5, scoring 11 goals and averaging 3.0 points per game, whereas Persijap over the same period have a 3-0-2 record with 7 goals and 1.8 points per game. Persijap’s home xG is 1.44 versus Borneo’s 1.36 xG on the road, but the visitors are far more efficient — 16% shot conversion versus Persijap’s 9% — and rarely fail to score (shutout rate 6% on the road vs 31% of Persijap’s matches without a goal). Defensively the differences are marginal (Persijap concede 1.19 goals at home, Borneo 1.31 away), however the overall goal balance 31–45 (−14) for Persijap versus 67–30 (+37) for Borneo and a +8 away goal difference support the visitors. On that basis I tip a Borneo win; probabilities are distributed as Home 15%, Draw 20%, Away 65%.

Persijap averages 2.38 goals scored and concedes only 0.56 goals per home match, keeping a clean sheet in 44% of games; in the last 5 home matches BTTS was 0%, strongly indicating a defensive trend. Borneo away has a high BTTS rate of 69% and a season goals-per-game average of 1.81, and in their last 5 away matches the visitors scored 11 goals total (avg 2.2) and conceded 3 (0.6), which shows offensive form. In xG terms Persijap generates xG 1.84 versus Borneo’s xG against 1.77, while Borneo has xG 1.36 versus xG against Persijap 1.29 — both teams create >~1.2 xG, but Persijap actually concedes significantly less than its xG against (1.29 vs 0.56, difference 0.73). Given Persijap’s 0% BTTS in the last 5, 44% clean sheets at home and lower actual goals conceded, I assign a higher probability to No (60%) than Yes (40%).

The model combines xG: Persijap has an attacking xG of 1.84, Borneo an xG against of 1.77, yielding expected home goals of 1.81; conversely Borneo has xG 1.36 versus Persijap’s xG against 1.29, translating to an expected 1.32 away goal, total ≈3.13. With combined λ=3.13 the Poisson distribution gives ~82% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), 61% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and 38% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Additionally Persijap averages 6.31 shots on target and has 75% of matches with >1.5 goals, Borneo averages 4.19 SOT, 81% of matches with >1.5 and 69% of matches with BTTS, which supports a both-teams-to-score scenario. Persijap concedes on average 0.56 goals at home, but their xG against is 1.29, so paired with Borneo’s attack (xG 1.36) I expect a goalscoring game — the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Persijap is very strong in the first half — they led at the break in 9 matches (56%) and average 0.88 goals before halftime while conceding only 0.19. Borneo averages 0.69 goals scored and 0.63 conceded in the first half, which gives Persijap a clear defensive and offensive advantage before the break. Over the full match Persijap averages 2.38 goals versus Borneo’s 1.81, with xG 1.84 to 1.36 in favor of the hosts, and Persijap win 88% of home games, so maintaining a lead through to the end is likely. Additionally, Persijap score on average 1.5 goals in the second half while conceding 0.38 and have goals after the break in 100% of matches, but Borneo are in form with 5 wins in their last 5 games (100%), giving them a real chance of a turnaround. On this basis I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 scenario (45%), with the remaining distributions (e.g. X/1 17%, X/X 8%) reflecting both the hosts’ strong efficiency and the visitors’ good form.