Persik Kediri vs Borneo: match statistics

Favorites are the visitors from Borneo — they sit 1st in the table with 21 wins and 61 goals scored this season, while Persik Kediri has 9 wins and 35 goals. The form gap is clear: in the last 5 matches Borneo scored 14 goals, recorded 4 wins and 1 draw (average points per match 2.6), whereas Persik scored 3 goals, has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (average points 0.8) and conceded 8 goals in that period versus Borneo’s 4 conceded. Persik enjoys home offensive metrics: 57% possession, on average 11.86 shots and 5.07 shots on target at home and home xG 1.63 with an average of 1.64 goals per home match, but the hosts’ defense concedes 1.29 goals on average and only 14% of matches end without conceding. Borneo away averages 1.79 goals with xG 1.38 (suggesting higher finishing efficiency), concedes 1.36 goals on the road and has 21% clean sheets, and the season goal differential 61-28 confirms their superiority. Therefore I forecast a Borneo win; suggested probability split is home 15%, draw 20%, away 65%.

Statistics clearly favor BTTS: Borneo has 71% of matches with both teams scoring this season and as much as 80% in the last 5, while Persik records 53% this season and only 40% in its last 5. Scoring form shows the gap — Borneo scored 14 goals in the last 5 (2.8/match) and concedes on average 0.8 goals, whereas Persik scored 3 goals (0.6/match) and conceded 8 (1.6/match), so the visitors are a very likely source of goals and the home side has recent defensive issues. xG confirms realistic chances for both teams: Persik generates 1.87 xG while allowing 1.72 xG by Borneo, and Borneo has 1.38 xG while allowing 1.30 xG by Persik, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, the league has 55% of matches with BTTS and an average of 2.71 goals per match, and for Borneo the Over2.5 + BTTS combination occurs in 71% of games, strengthening the expectation of a goal-heavy flow in this fixture. Considering the 71–80% values for Borneo versus 40–53% for Persik and the recent goal returns and xG, I recommend a "BTTS - Yes" selection with an estimated probability of about 68% (No 32%).

Based on xG and attacking metrics, I project 1.80 expected goals for Persik (xG 1.87 vs average xG against Borneo 1.72) and 1.34 for Borneo (xG 1.38 vs average xG against Persik 1.30), yielding a combined 3.14 expected goals. This season Persik scores 2.4 goals per match on average, Borneo 1.79, and both teams register Over 1.5 in 73% (Persik) and 86% (Borneo) of games; a Poisson model indicates roughly an 82% chance of at least 2 goals. Season Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Persik and 71% for Borneo, and Poisson convolution gives about a 61% probability of three or more goals, so Over 2.5 is moderately likely. For the 3.5 line season values are 40%/50% (Persik/Borneo), but the model suggests only ~38% chance of four or more goals, so Under 3.5 has the edge. Considering the strongest signal (82% for Over 1.5) and Persik’s offensive advantage in shots 16.0/6.4 vs 11.57/4.21 for Borneo, I recommend taking Over 1.5 as the best line.

Persik Kediri has a seasonal edge: averaging 2.4 goals per match while conceding 0.6, whereas Borneo scores 1.79 and concedes 1.36, with Persik’s xG at 1.87 versus the visitors’ 1.38. At half-time Persik have led in 53% of this season’s matches and average 0.87 goals by the break while conceding just 0.2, whereas Borneo have led at the break in 36% and average 0.79 first-half goals. In the short term there is, however, a reversed signal: in the last five fixtures Persik have only 20% wins and led at half-time in 20%, while Borneo have won 80% and led at the break in 40%, which increases the risk of a draw at half-time. Even so, Persik’s strong second-half output (on average 1.93 goals after the break and 13 goals in minutes 76–90), together with superiority in xG and shots (16 vs. 11.57), favors a scenario where the home side leads at the break and holds on to win by full-time (1/1).