Perugia vs Reggiana: match statistics

Reggiana remain unbeaten in their six matches so far, winning 4 of them, while they have collected 13 points and scored 11 goals in their last five fixtures. Perugia are in significantly poorer form: they have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding as many as 11. Away from home, Reggiana create more high-quality chances, averaging 1.70 xG compared with Perugia’s 1.19 xG at home, and register an average of 4.67 shots on target per match versus their opponents’ 3.33. The visitors score 2.33 goals per away game and have not failed to find the net in any match, whereas Perugia have been held scoreless in 33% of their home fixtures. Perugia’s home advantage, having won 2 of their 3 matches at home, limits the extent of Reggiana’s edge, but the visitors’ current attacking efficiency and more solid defense point towards a Reggiana victory.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear: Perugia have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches, while Reggiana have done so in as many as 100%, compared with the league average of 56%. The visitors are particularly reliable in attack, averaging 2.33 goals per match and 2.2 over their last five appearances, while Perugia conceded as many as 2.2 goals during that period. The hosts have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches, but Reggiana have failed to keep a clean sheet at any point this season, with an average xG against of 1.32. Both teams also create chances consistently, recording an average xG of 1.53 for Perugia and 1.70 for Reggiana, making the scenario in which both sides find the net more likely.

Reggiana are showing clearly stronger attacking form: they have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Perugia have conceded 2.2 goals per game during the same period. The visitors are also creating more chances, averaging 14.0 shots and 4.67 shots on target, compared with Perugia’s 12.33 and 4.0 respectively. Both teams have scored at least once in 100% of their matches so far, while Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Reggiana’s games and 67% of Perugia’s. The hosts’ recent form also points towards goals, with their last five matches producing an average of 0.8 goals scored and as many as 2.2 conceded. The Over 1.5 goals line therefore has the strongest support, both from the consistency of the scoring patterns and from the favourable matchup between Reggiana’s attack and Perugia’s defense.

Reggiana are showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, while Perugia have lost 3 of their last 5 games, with averages of 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. The difference is already evident before half-time, as the visitors have averaged 1.6 first-half goals in their last five appearances, compared with just 0.4 for the hosts, who were trailing at the break in 40% of those matches. Reggiana led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches and have not once gone into the break behind, strengthening the scenario of them having the advantage from the outset. Although both teams have a 67% win rate across the broader season sample, the visitors’ current edge in finishing and defensive performance clearly points towards Reggiana leading at half-time and securing the win at full-time: 1/1.