Petrojet vs Al Masry: match statistics

Al Masry sit 5th, while Petrojet are 18th, and the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 3 in that span. Petrojet’s trend is significantly weaker: across their five most recent games, they have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with a goal difference of 8:8. Al Masry have won every away match so far, averaging 3 goals per game, while Petrojet have lost every home fixture and concede an average of 3 goals. The hosts do create more high-quality chances according to xG, 1.86 compared with 1.44, but Al Masry are considerably more clinical, converting 25% of their shots compared with Petrojet’s 13%. The visitors’ defense allows opponents an xG of 0.92 per match, lower than the hosts’ 1.03, which, combined with their superior current form, points to an Al Masry victory.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Petrojet’s limited attacking potential at home: the team scores just 0.5 goals on average, records 1 shot on target per match, and has failed to score in 50% of its games. Al Masry have produced a very solid defensive run, conceding an average of only 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while their average xG against was just 0.93. The visitors should also have good chances of scoring themselves, as they average 7 shots on target and score 3.0 goals per match, while Petrojet allows opponents an xG of 1.17. Although Petrojet recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, Al Masry saw this scenario in only 20%, while the Egyptian league has produced goals from both teams in just 34% of matches. Therefore, the more likely outcome is that at least one side—most notably Petrojet—will fail to score.

Al Masry creates significantly more danger, averaging 12.0 shots and 7.0 on target, compared with Petrojet’s 8.5 shots and just 1.0 on target. However, the hosts have solid defensive credentials, having kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches so far, while Al Masry allows opponents just 0.92 xG on average. In their last five matches, Al Masry conceded only 3 goals, or 0.6 per game, which limits Petrojet’s prospects of a high scoring total. The league average is just 2.0 goals, and only 31% of matches go Over 2.5 goals, meaning that four goals would require a scenario well above the league norm. Despite the visitors’ attacking potential, the projected total of 2.45 goals provides the strongest edge for Under 3.5 goals.

Al Masry have a clear quality advantage: they won 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding just 0.6, while Petrojet lost 60% of their games and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. The visitors also create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.44 compared with the hosts’ 0.92, seven shots on target per match versus one, and a conversion rate of 25% compared with 6%. Petrojet have yet to score before half-time in the available season data, while Al Masry have not been behind at the break; moreover, the visitors led at half-time in 40% of their last five matches. The most likely scenario is therefore for Al Masry to take the lead in the first half and hold it until full-time, although a draw at half-time followed by an away win after the break remains a significant alternative.