Pharco vs El Gounah: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors: El Gounah sit 10th versus Pharco in 20th and present a superior away record (7 wins, 13 draws, 5 losses, GD +3) while Pharco at home have only 3 wins, 11 draws, 11 losses and GD -5. Offensively the edge for the visitors comes from efficiency — El Gounah average 0.77 goals away with an 8% conversion and 3.38 shots on target, whereas Pharco at home average just 0.42 goals with a 4% conversion and 3.25 shots on target. Defensively the visitors also perform better: they concede 0.54 goals away and keep clean sheets in 54% of matches, while Pharco concede 0.83 at home with a 42% clean sheet rate. Differences in xG and finishing are significant — Pharco have an average xG for 1.17 but score only 0.42 goals, while El Gounah have xG for 1.12 and actually 0.77 goals, indicating greater clinicality from the visitors; additionally PPG over the last 5 matches is 1.2 for El Gounah versus 1.0 for Pharco. Considering the higher conversion rate (8% vs 4%), lower average goals conceded (0.54 vs 0.83) and positive away balance (+3 vs the home side’s -5), I tip the visitors to win.

In my assessment, BTTS - No is more likely. Pharco averages 0.58 goals per match and El Gounah 0.77, while goals conceded are only 0.75 and 0.54 respectively, indicating low scoring. Season BTTS rates are 42% for Pharco and 31% for El Gounah (league level 47%), and in the last 5 matches Pharco has 60% BTTS versus El Gounah only 20% — a significant divergence favoring No Goal. Additionally, El Gounah keeps a clean sheet in 54% of games compared to 42% for Pharco. xG stats show 1.27 for the home side and 1.12 for the away, with xG against at 1.08 vs 1.46, and low conversion rates 5% vs 8% plus SOT 2.83 vs 3.38 suggest limited finishing. Summing these figures, the 'No' scenario looks stronger than 'Yes'.

I assess expected goals as: Pharco 1.04, El Gounah 0.96, total 2.00 goals. My model combines xG and actual scoring averages: Pharco has xG 1.27 vs 0.58 actual goals (difference 0.69), El Gounah xG 1.12 vs 0.77 goals (difference 0.35), indicating significant finishing inefficiency for both sides. Seasonal stats confirm a low-scoring tendency: Pharco recorded under 2.5 goals in 92% of matches, El Gounah in 85%, with matches over 2.5 goals occurring only in 8% and 15% of cases respectively. Despite a league average of 2.0 goals (a theoretical Poisson model would imply ~32% chance of Over 2.5), low shot conversion rates (5% for Pharco and 8% for El Gounah) and the historical 92%/85% Under 2.5 compel me towards the Under market. Therefore I recommend Under 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability Under ~72% vs Over ~28%); alternatively Over 1.5 is moderately likely (~60%).

The most likely half-time result is a draw: Pharco were level at the break in 67% of matches and El Gounah in 69% (approximately 68% on average), so I expect a draw after 45 minutes. In the second half the advantage lies with the visitors — El Gounah won 46% of second halves and have a positive second-half goal difference of +5, while Pharco won only 17% of second halves and are neutral (0) on that metric. The visitors also scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 for the hosts, increasing the likelihood of decisive late goals. Additionally El Gounah have higher average points (1.54 vs 1.17) and both teams have low goals at half-time (hosts 0.08 vs visitors 0.23), therefore I recommend the HT/FT scenario X/2 (draw at half-time, visitors to win).