Pharco vs Ghazl El Mehalla: match statistics

Pharco (20th) have scored 9 goals this season and average just 0.2 goals per home game, failing to score in 80% of their home matches, indicating serious finishing issues. Ghazl El Mehalla (16th) have 13 goals this season and score 0.9 goals on the road on average, with a shot conversion rate of ~11% versus 2% for the hosts, giving the visitors an edge in finalization. At the same time Pharco concede only 0.8 goals per home match whereas Ghazl concede 1.1 away, and average xG is 1.09 for the hosts and 1.02 for the visitors, suggesting both teams create a similar number of chances. Both sides are without a win in their last 5 matches (0W, 3D, 2L) and have drawn 50% of their home/away fixtures respectively, which further supports a share of points. Therefore I forecast a draw as the most likely outcome (50%), with 30% probability for an away win and 20% for a home win.

Pharco has a seasonal BTTS of 27% and kept a clean sheet in 73% of matches, while Ghazl El Mehalla has BTTS 40% and CS 50%, which favors a No Goal scenario. Pharco has scored only 9 goals this season (avg 0.36), and Ghazl 13 goals (avg 0.9), so both teams show limited scoring threat. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.03 vs 1.02), but xG against is 1.29 for Pharco and 1.44 for Ghazl, and the hosts’ shot conversion is only 4% versus 11% for the visitors, meaning Pharco rarely converts chances. In the last 5 matches both teams had BTTS in 40% of games, scoring 2 and conceding 5 (Pharco) and 6 (Ghazl) respectively, which further supports a low frequency of Goal/Goal. Considering the hosts’ 73% clean sheets and Pharco’s low seasonal BTTS of 27%, I assess BTTS - No at 70% vs 30% for BTTS - Yes.

I expect a low-scoring game: expected goals are ~0.50 for Pharco and 0.95 for Ghazl El Mehalla, totaling ~1.45 goals, so I recommend Over/Under: Under 2.5. The xG for both teams is 1.03 (Pharco) and 1.02 (Ghazl), but actual shot conversion is low — conversion rate 4% for Pharco and 11% for Ghazl, translating to seasonal goal averages of 0.36 and 0.90 respectively. In the last 5 matches Pharco scored 2 goals (0.4 per match) and Ghazl also 2 goals (0.4 per match); Pharco keeps a clean sheet in 73% of games, while both teams scored in only 27% of matches, which reduces the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Historical Over 2.5 rates are 9% for Pharco and 40% for Ghazl; given the low number of shots on target (about 2.0 per match each) and low conversion, I estimate the probability of Over 2.5 at ~18% (Under 82%), therefore Under 2.5 is the strongest signal.

The strongest signal points to a draw at half-time: the home side were level at the break in 82% of matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 82), and the away side in 60% (drawingAtHTPercentage_away = 60), yielding an average of about a 71% chance of a half-time draw. Both teams have low goal averages and limited finishing efficiency — hosts score 0.36 goals per match with a conversion rate of 4%, visitors 0.9 goals with an 11% conversion, while both teams’ xG is similar: 1.03 vs 1.02, suggesting few chances are being taken. Additionally, the hosts kept a clean sheet at half-time in 91% of matches (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 91) and have a season clean sheet rate of 73%, and BTTS is 27% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors, which reinforces the low-score draw scenario. Therefore my primary HT/FT pick is draw/draw (X/X) with an estimated probability of 43%, with a secondary scenario of draw/away (X/2) at 14% due to the higher average goals by visitors in the second half (AVG_2hg_away = 0.8 vs AVG_2hg_home = 0.45).