Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United: match statistics

Phoenix Rising holds a clear offensive advantage at home — averaging 1.5 goals per home match versus just 0.67 goals scored by New Mexico United on the road, with a higher conversion rate (13% vs 7%) and greater average shots (11.5 vs 9.33). The home side registers 4.5 shots on target per home game compared to the visitors' 3.33 and has never recorded a goalless home match (FTS 0%), while New Mexico has 33% of away matches without a goal. However, the visitors sit higher in the table (13 vs 19) and have slightly better PPG over the last five matches (1.8 vs 1.6) and 3 wins in their last 5 versus Phoenix’s 2, indicating superior recent form. Defensively on the season New Mexico concedes 1.0 goals on the road vs Phoenix’s 1.5 conceded at home, but in the last 5 matches the visitors have conceded 9 goals versus 6 conceded by the hosts, which undermines their defensive edge. Considering the hosts’ better chance creation and efficiency metrics and higher home xG (xG 1.36 vs 1.12), I predict a Phoenix Rising victory.

Statistics favor BTTS - Yes: Phoenix Rising has a home BTTS rate of 100% this season versus New Mexico’s 33% on the road, with Phoenix averaging 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home. Phoenix creates substantially more opportunities — 17.0 shots and 6.0 on target per game with xG 1.73 — while New Mexico averages 9.33 shots, 3.33 on target and xG 1.12, increasing the likelihood the hosts will score. Despite New Mexico’s weaker away season output (0.67 goals per game), they have averaged 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches (7 goals in 5) with a recent xG of 1.45, and Phoenix have 1.8 goals in their last 5 (9 goals in 5) while conceding 1.2 on average, indicating a current pattern of goal exchange. Additionally, Phoenix have no clean sheets at home (0%) and 100% of home games over 2.5 goals, so I assess BTTS probability at 75% versus 25% for No Goal — the strongest signal is the combination of the hosts’ 100% home BTTS and a high average concession of 2.0 goals.

Phoenix has an average xG of 1.73 per match, New Mexico 1.12, and their defenses concede average xG of 1.33 (Phoenix at home) and 1.59 (New Mexico away) respectively. Averaging the home attack with the visitors' susceptibility yields an expected 1.66 goals for Phoenix, and averaging the away attack with the hosts' susceptibility yields 1.23 goals for New Mexico, totaling 2.89 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.89 gives roughly a 78% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 55% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and around 33% for Over 3.5. Additionally, Phoenix scores on average 3.0 goals at home with 17 shots and an 18% conversion rate (their home matches are Over 2.5 in 100% of the season), while New Mexico averages 9.33 shots with 7% conversion and scores 0.67 goals seasonally, which strengthens the probability of at least two goals. Therefore, the strongest signal from the available data is an Over bet at the 1.5 line.

Phoenix Rising recorded a draw at half-time in 100% of their matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 100.0) and on average do not score before the break (GoalsHT_home = 0.0). They are, however, most active in the second half: averaging 3.0 goals after the break (scored_2hg_avg_home = 3.0), with two goals between minutes 61–75 (goals_scored_min_61_to_75_home = 2.0) and one between 76–90 (goals_scored_min_76_to_90_home = 1.0). The home side creates significantly more chances and quality passes to shots: on average 17 shots and 6.0 shots on target versus New Mexico’s 9.33 and 3.33, and the home xG is 1.73 versus the visitors’ 1.12, with conversion rates of 18% vs 7%, which favors scoring after the break. The away team led at half-time in 33% of their matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 33.0) and average 0.33 goals by half-time (scoredAVGHT_away = 0.33), but concede more expected goals against them (xg_against_avg_away = 1.59), so they are unlikely to hold the result until the end. Based on this, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).