Phoenix Rising vs Tulsa Roughnecks: match statistics

Phoenix Rising have the clearer edge at home, averaging 1.82 goals scored with an xG of 1.84, while Tulsa score 1.40 goals away from home and generate an xG of 1.34. The hosts also register more shots, 15.45 per match compared with the opponents’ 11.00, and average 6.36 shots on target versus Tulsa’s 4.20. The defenses are similar in terms of goals conceded, with Phoenix allowing 1.27 goals at home and Tulsa conceding 1.20 away, but the visitors allow opponents to generate a higher xG of 1.45 compared with 1.21 for the hosts. Current form also slightly favors Phoenix, who have scored 8 goals and collected 8 points in their last five matches, while Tulsa have scored 6 goals and earned 7 points. Tulsa sit 6th in the table, but they fail to score in 40% of their away matches, so home advantage and the greater quality of chances created point to Phoenix Rising.

The stronger signal is BTTS - No, as Phoenix Rising keeps a clean sheet in 58% of its matches, while its seasonal share of games featuring goals from both teams is only 25%, well below the league average of 54%. The hosts concede just 0.58 goals per match on average, while Tulsa fail to score in 40% of their games, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will not beat the goalkeeper. Tulsa do average 1.4 goals scored per match and 4.2 shots on target, but they have recently averaged just 1.2 goals, while Phoenix are the toughest defensive opponent in this matchup. Phoenix’s form increases the risk for the BTTS - No pick, as BTTS occurred in 80% of their last five matches; however, Tulsa recorded only 20% such games during the same period and conceded just 0.6 goals per match. With Phoenix at 1.23 xG and Tulsa at 1.34 xG, a result with at least one team failing to score is more likely than an open exchange of goals.

Phoenix Rising concede an average of just 0.58 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 58% of games, which significantly limits Tulsa’s attacking potential. The hosts score an average of 1.0 goal, while no more than 2 goals were scored in 83% of their home matches; the 3.5 line was exceeded in just 8% of these appearances. Tulsa score 1.4 goals on the road, but have conceded only 0.6 goals per match across their last five games, so their current profile also points towards a lower-scoring outcome. The xG figures are fairly balanced, at 1.23 for Phoenix and 1.34 for Tulsa, but they do not indicate a clear advantage for either side or suggest an open game scenario. The strongest selection is Under 3.5, as both teams have solid defensive indicators, while the season data particularly strongly supports a maximum of three goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Phoenix were level at the break in 58% of their matches and Tulsa in 40%, with a very low average of 0.58 goals scored in the first halves of the hosts’ matches. Phoenix are particularly strong defensively from the outset, conceding just 0.08 goals on average before half-time and keeping a clean sheet in this period in as many as 92% of matches. After the interval, the advantage should shift towards the hosts, who have averaged 0.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded in the second half across their last five matches, while Tulsa recorded figures of 0.6 and 0.6 respectively. Phoenix’s stronger home points return also supports a home win: 1.75 points per match compared with Tulsa’s 1.50, along with a significantly lower season average of goals conceded, 0.58 versus 1.20. Tulsa are dangerous offensively, averaging 4.2 shots on target per match compared with Phoenix’s 2.67, so scenarios in which the visitors score remain relevant, but they are not stronger than a half-time draw followed by a home win at full-time (X/1).