Pisa vs Torino: match statistics

Torino are the favorites in this fixture due to markedly superior attacking efficiency: the visitors have scored 34 goals this season, averaging 1.00 on the road, whereas Pisa have 23 goals and only 0.47 at home. The visitors average 11.67 shots per away match, 4.2 on target, with a conversion rate of 9%, while Pisa record 10.27 shots and 3.0 on target at home with a 5% conversion, translating into a clear Turin advantage in finishing. Pisa have failed to score in 67% of their home games and managed only 3 goals in their last 5 matches while conceding 12, whereas Torino have scored 9 goals in their last 5 and averaged 1.2 points per match versus Pisa’s 0.6. Defensively, Pisa concede 1.2 goals at home on average and Torino concede 2.0 away, indicating the visitors are more exposed but possess superior quality of chances (xG 1.26 away versus Pisa’s 1.17 xG at home). Considering higher efficiency, greater number of shots on target and stronger recent goal figures, I predict a Torino victory.

I back BTTS - No, because Pisa have only 20% BTTS in their last 5 matches and score on average 0.6 goals per game (3 goals in last 5), while conceding 2.4 on average. Torino have 60% BTTS in their last 5 and score 1.8 on average (9 goals in last 5), so they are the more likely source of goals. This season Pisa at home have 53% BTTS, Torino away 40%, and the league average is 47%; both teams have conceded a lot (Pisa 54 conceded, Torino 53 conceded), which favors opponent goals but does not convince that Pisa will score. xG shows Pisa produce 1.39 xG at home with 1.42 xG against, while Torino away have 1.26 xG with 1.61 xG against; this suggests Torino create and convert chances more often than Pisa in current form. Considering Pisa’s clear low scoring form over the last 5 and Torino’s better attack, I assign a higher probability to ‘No’ (60%) than ‘Yes’ (40%).

Based on xG and defensive metrics I expect about 2.84 goals in the match: Pisa ~1.50 and Torino ~1.34 (Pisa xG_for 1.39, Torino xG_for 1.26; Torino xG_against 1.61, Pisa xG_against 1.42). Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Pisa and 67% for Torino, and in the last 5 matches these are 60% and 80% respectively, which supports a high-scoring game scenario. Pisa have significant defensive issues in the last 5 matches (conceding 2.4 goals on average), while Torino scored 9 goals in that period (1.8 per match), increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Numerically, with a combined xG ~2.84 the theoretical probability of 2+ goals is about 78%, 3+ goals about 54% and 4+ goals about 32%, therefore the strongest signal is an over play at the 2.5 line.

Pisa has a clear advantage in half‑time statistics: average goals by half‑time are 0.73 for the home side versus 0.27 for Torino, and the hosts led at the break in 33% of matches compared to 13% for the visitors. Over the full match Pisa records 40% wins this season versus 20% for Torino, season PPG is 1.33 versus 0.87, and xG is 1.39 against 1.26 — these figures together with the hosts’ 4.53 shots on target suggest Pisa’s advantage should hold after the interval. However, form over the last five matches softens this signal: Torino averaged 1.8 goals per game versus Pisa’s 0.6, and in the first halves of those five fixtures Torino scored 8 goals against the hosts’ 4, which raises the probability of a half‑time draw or a Torino turnaround after the break. Therefore the single most likely scenario I assign is Pisa leading at half‑time and winning the match (1/1) at 23%; a half‑time draw and home win (X/1) is also very likely at 20%; the classic HT/FT draw (X/X) I rate at 16%. Overall the distribution forecasts a 33% chance the hosts will lead at half‑time, 44% for a half‑time draw and 23% for Torino leading at the break, with an estimated roughly 22% probability of an away win in the full match given their lower season‑long efficiency.