PK-35 vs JäPS: match statistics

PK-35 sit 2nd, while JäPS are fifth, and over the course of the season the hosts have won 11 of 19 matches, suffering just 3 defeats. At home, PK-35 average 1.6 goals and create chances worth 1.54 xG, clearly outperforming JäPS away from home, where the averages stand at 0.89 goals and 1.12 xG. The visitors struggle for consistency on the road: they have lost 56% of their away fixtures, concede an average of 1.78 goals, and fail to score in 33% of such matches. However, JäPS have tightened up defensively in their last five games, conceding only 3 goals, with a record of 3 wins and 2 defeats, which increases the likelihood of a closely contested match. Despite this, PK-35 average 12 shots at home, including 4.5 on target, compared with JäPS’s 9.22 attempts and 3 shots on target, so the hosts should have the better chance of securing a win.

The stronger signal points to a scenario in which at least one side fails to score: PK-35 recorded BTTS in only 10% of their matches this season and kept a clean sheet in 60% of games. JäPS average just 0.89 goals per match, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of their last five appearances, despite averaging 1.0 goal scored. The home side are the favorites to find the net, as JäPS concede an average of 1.78 goals and their average xG allowed to opponents stands at a high 1.80. At the same time, the visitors’ defense has recently improved to just 0.6 goals conceded per match, increasing the likelihood of a 1:0 result or another win in which one team fails to score. PK-35’s 60% BTTS rate in their recent matches supports a goal for JäPS, but the hosts’ clearly weaker season data and the visitors’ low attacking efficiency favor BTTS - No.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: PK-35 score an average of 1.00 goal, while JäPS score 0.89, with the league average standing at 2.45 goals per match. However, the hosts have a favorable attacking matchup, as their average xG is 1.26, while JäPS allow opponents 1.80 xG per game. On the other hand, JäPS have conceded only 0.60 goals per match in their last five games, and PK-35 have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches this season, which limits the projection for the away side's goals. The 3.5 line is particularly well protected, as PK-35 matches have finished below it in 90% of cases and JäPS matches in 67%; therefore, the edge is with Under 3.5.

PK-35 has a clearer home profile: they have won 60% of their matches, scoring 1.0 goal per game and conceding just 1.0, while JäPS have lost 56% of their matches and allowed opponents an average of 1.78 goals. The hosts have more frequently taken the lead at the break, doing so in 5 of 10 matches (50%), compared with 2 of 9 for JäPS (22%). Their first-half defense is particularly solid, conceding an average of 0.2 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 80% of matches, while the visitors failed to score in the first half in 67% of their appearances. PK-35’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: the hosts create an average of 1.26 xG, compared with the 1.80 xG allowed by JäPS, and register 3.8 shots on target versus their opponents’ 3.0. JäPS’s recent form, with 3 wins in 5 matches and just 0.6 goals conceded per game, increases the chances of a draw or a turnaround, but the most likely individual outcome remains PK-35 leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage through full-time.