Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs KS Hetman Zamosc: match statistics

Podlasie Biała Podlaska have shown a clearly stronger trend over their last five matches, collecting 5 points from 1 win and 2 draws, while Hetman Zamość have managed just 1 point. The hosts have scored 9 goals during this period, averaging 1.8 per game, compared with Hetman’s 6 goals. The biggest concern for the visitors is their defense, which has conceded as many as 18 goals in their last five appearances—an average of 3.6 per match—while scoring only 6. Podlasie have also been far from flawless defensively, conceding 6 goals, but their 9:6 goal difference is considerably better than their opponents’ 6:18. With home advantage and significantly more stable recent form, a home win is the more likely outcome.

The signal for both sides to score is driven primarily by recent form: BTTS landed in 60% of Podlasie’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Hetman’s games. During this period, Podlasie averaged 1.8 goals, while Hetman, despite a run of four defeats, scored 1.2 goals per match. The visitors’ defense is particularly vulnerable, having conceded 18 goals in their last five appearances—an average of 3.6 per game—which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. Podlasie have also failed to keep things tight, conceding an average of 1.2 goals, while the league-wide BTTS average stands at a high 67%. The low xG figures from recent matches—0.19 for the hosts and 0.67 for the visitors—call for caution, but the consistency of BTTS results and Hetman’s weak defense provide stronger support for the “yes” scenario.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as Podlasie averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last five matches, while Hetman conceded as many as 3.6 goals per game during that period. The hosts allowed opponents to average 1.2 goals, whereas Hetman scored 1.2, which still gives the visitors a realistic chance of adding a goal. Hetman’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for Podlasie; additionally, both teams scored in 80% of Hetman’s matches and 60% of Podlasie’s. The projected total of 2.9 goals also supports Over 2.5, but the visitors’ inconsistent finishing and low average xG of 0.67 limit confidence in this higher line. The 1.5 line offers a clearer safety margin, as just two goals would align with both the hosts’ attacking output and Hetman’s very weak recent defense.

The strongest signal points to Podlasie leading at half-time: in their last five matches, the hosts were ahead after 45 minutes in 80% of games, while Hetman were trailing at the break in 100% of cases. Podlasie averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded just 0.2 before half-time, whereas the Zamość-based side conceded as many as 4.0 goals in the first halves. The difference in current full-match form is also clear, with the hosts averaging 1.8 goals, while the visitors allowed their opponents to score 3.6 goals and lost 80% of their last five matches. The 1/1 scenario is somewhat weakened by Podlasie’s inferior second-half performance, during which they average 0.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded; therefore, a significant share of the probability goes to the outcome in which the hosts lead at half-time but the match ends level. Nevertheless, the scale of Podlasie’s first-half advantage and Hetman’s very weak defense from the start of matches make 1/1 the most likely single HT/FT outcome.