Portuguesa vs Trujillanos: match statistics

Portuguesa clearly perform at a higher level on home soil: they win 55% of such matches, score an average of 1.45 goals and concede just 0.73 per game. Trujillanos are yet to win away from home, losing 83% of their matches and allowing opponents to score an average of 2.50 goals. The hosts are also more effective in chance creation, averaging 10.45 shots and 3.91 on target per match compared with 8.33 and 2.67 for the visitors, while their possession stands at 52% versus 45% for their opponents. The difference is also reflected in chance quality: Portuguesa have a home xG against of 1.16, whereas Trujillanos allow an away xG of 1.88. Recent form further favors the hosts, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have scored only 3 goals and suffered 3 defeats during this period.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Portuguesa have averaged just 0.75 goals per game throughout the season, while Trujillanos have averaged 0.83. In their last five matches, the visitors scored only 3 goals, or 0.6 per game, with BTTS landing in just 20% of their matches, compared with 40% for the home side. Portuguesa failed to score in 50% of their matches, while Trujillanos did so in 33%, making the risk of at least one team drawing a blank clearly evident. The hosts should create chances, averaging 1.60 xG against 1.88 xG conceded by the visitors, but Portuguesa’s low conversion rate of 6% and Trujillanos’ poor recent goal production reduce the chances of both teams scoring.

Portuguesa create chances worth an average of 1.60 xG at home, while Trujillanos allow opponents 1.88 xG, pointing to approximately 1.45 goals for the hosts. However, the visitors have a clearly weaker offense: their average xG is 0.98, with 2.67 shots on target per match, so their projection stands at 0.95 goals. In their last five matches, both teams conceded an average of 1.2 goals per game, yet Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% of Portuguesa's matches and 20% of Trujillanos' matches. Although Trujillanos' season results more frequently exceeded 3.5 goals, Portuguesa had fewer than 3.5 goals in as many as 87% of matches, and neither team averages even one goal per game across the season. The combined projected total of 2.40 goals provides the strongest edge for Under 3.5 goals.

Portuguesa have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Trujillanos have lost 3 games during that period and have not recorded a single victory all season. The hosts are creating significantly better chances, as reflected by their average xG of 1.60 compared with the opponents’ 0.98, as well as 4.50 shots on target per match versus 2.67 for the visitors. In their last five appearances, Portuguesa have taken the lead at the break in 40% of matches, whereas Trujillanos have scored just 0.20 goals per game before half-time. After the interval, the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals, and their record in this period stands at 83% defeats, further supporting the scenario of the hosts maintaining their lead until full-time. The most likely outcome is therefore Portuguesa leading at half-time and winning the match, making the 1/1 HT/FT selection the strongest option.