Posusje vs Radnik Bijeljina: match statistics

I predict a home win (1). Posusje concede on average 0.93 goals per match at home versus Radnik’s 1.86 conceded away, and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of home games compared to the visitors’ 14% clean sheets, giving the hosts a clear defensive edge. Offensively the hosts create more opportunities — averaging 11.07 shots and 3.43 on target per home match versus Radnik’s 8.5 shots and 3.29 on target away, and the hosts’ xG at home is 1.29 versus Radnik’s 1.03 xG on the road. In the last 5 matches Posusje have collected 7 points (1.4 per match), scored 4 goals and won 2 games, while Radnik have 4 points (0.8 per match), 3 goals and only 1 win. Considering the hosts’ superior defense, higher chance creation and Radnik’s poor away form, I forecast a Posusje victory with a moderate probability of a draw and a low probability of an away win.

Statistics favor no BTTS: Posusje has a seasonal BTTS rate of 20% and keeps a clean sheet in 53% of matches, while Radnik has BTTS 43% and only 14% clean sheets. Average goals show the home side scores 0.93 and concedes 0.8 per game, whereas the visitors score 0.79 and concede 1.86, so Radnik is more prone to conceding but rarely scores themselves. xG is 1.23 for Posusje versus xG against Radnik 1.65, indicating the hosts create chances, yet the actual goals scored average (0.93) and a high clean sheet rate of 53% limit the number of Goal/Goal outcomes. In the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS in only 20% of games and over that period averaged 0.8 (Posusje) and 0.6 (Radnik) goals scored, while conceding 1.0 and 1.4 respectively, further supporting low scoring activity. Considering the league BTTS average of 37% and as many as 75% of matches with a clean sheet in the league, I recommend backing BTTS - No with a probability of 75%.

Expected xG is 1.44 for Posušje and 1.21 for Radnik Bijeljina, totalling 2.65 goals. With a combined expected total of 2.65, the Poisson distribution gives roughly a 74% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 49% chance of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 27% chance of at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Season Over1.5 rates are 53% for the home side and 64% for the visitors, while the league average is 2.12 goals per match, so the projected total is above the league mean. Radnik concedes on average 1.86 goals per match and has an xG against of 1.65, whereas Posušje generates 1.23 xG and 9.93 shots per match, which supports the case for Over 1.5.

I select X/1 (draw at half-time, Posušje win at full-time) as the most likely scenario. Posušje record a draw at the break in 53% of matches, while Radnik are trailing at half-time in 50% of their games, which favors a draw or a minimal home lead at the break. Posušje score an average of 0.47 goals in the first half, and Radnik concede an average of 0.93 goals by half-time; at the same time the hosts keep a clean sheet at the break in 67% of matches, so many encounters are 0:0 or 1:0 at the interval. In the second half Posušje’s superiority becomes apparent – in the last five matches the hosts earn an average of 1.6 points in second halves versus 0.8 points for Radnik, and the hosts’ xG is 1.23 compared to the visitors’ 1.03, suggesting more quality chances for Posušje. Additionally Radnik concede an average of 1.86 goals per match and have only a 7% win rate this season, while the hosts win 40% of their games, so the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of a draw at the break and a Posušje turnaround by full-time is the strongest signal.