Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: match statistics

Deportivo Maldonado sit 3rd, while Progreso are seventh, and over the course of the season the visitors have won 12 matches and suffered just 5 defeats, compared with the hosts’ 4 wins and 15 losses. Progreso are in poor form, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and scored just 3 goals in that run, whereas Maldonado have suffered only one defeat during the same period. Away from home, the visitors average 1.45 goals per match, with 1.35 xG, while Progreso concede 1.64 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in just 9% of matches. Maldonado’s superiority is also evident in chance creation and finishing: they average 10.55 shots and 4 shots on target per match, with a 14% conversion rate, compared with Progreso’s 8.82 shots, 3 on target and 10% efficiency. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as the visitors have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, but the hosts’ weak attacking output—they fail to score in 45% of home games—points towards an away win.

Although both teams have frequently recorded matches with goals at both ends throughout the season, with BTTS rates of 58% for Progreso and 64% for Deportivo Maldonado, the hosts’ current form clearly weakens this scenario. Progreso have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 goals per game, while BTTS occurred in only 40% of their matches during this period. Deportivo Maldonado have recently conceded an average of 1.2 goals and allow opponents an xG of 1.11, giving them a realistic chance of keeping out the less effective hosts. On the other hand, Progreso have a solid defensive record this season, conceding an average of 0.83 goals and keeping 42% clean sheets, so the visitors are not guaranteed to score either. Therefore, the most likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

Seasonal data points to moderate scoring potential: Progreso average 1.83 goals at home, while Deportivo Maldonado average 1.45 away, but the hosts’ recent form clearly lowers the projection. In their last five matches, Progreso scored only 3 goals, or 0.6 per game, with an xG of 1.21, while the visitors averaged 1.4 goals per game, although their xG stood at 1.31. The 3.5 line was not surpassed in 75% of the hosts’ matches and 73% of Deportivo Maldonado’s away fixtures, while both teams very rarely concede more than 3 goals. The last five matches for each side produced Over 2.5 in only 40% of cases, supporting a scenario with a maximum of three goals. The projected total of 2.35 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Recent form clearly favors Deportivo Maldonado: Progreso have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of just 0.6 goals, while the visitors have suffered only one defeat during this period. The home side have recently been leading at the break in only 20% of their matches and averaged 0.2 goals, whereas Deportivo Maldonado led after 45 minutes in 40% of their games and scored an average of 1.0 goal. Over the season as a whole, Progreso remain strong at home, with a 67% win rate and an average of 1.83 goals scored, but their current decline in attacking efficiency significantly reduces the importance of this advantage. The visitors have the better recent first-half record, while the hosts’ poor run makes Deportivo Maldonado leading at half-time and maintaining that advantage until full-time the most likely single HT/FT scenario.