Qabala vs Qarabağ: match statistics

Qarabağ is the clear favorite: they sit 2nd in the table and have 19 wins this season versus Qabala’s 5. Offensively the gap is significant — Qabala score 0.93 goals per home match, while Qarabağ average 2.07 goals away and in the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 9 goals versus 3 for the hosts. The visitors generate far more chances (on average 15.07 shots and 5.71 on target per match) than the hosts (10.71 and 3.14), have a higher conversion rate 14% versus 9% and a higher xG 1.91 versus 1.21. Defensively Qabala concede 1.57 goals at home on average and have only 7% clean sheets, while Qarabağ concede 0.93 goals away and have 29% clean sheets; additionally Qabala fail to score in 43% of home matches, whereas Qarabağ fail to score in only 14% of away games. Considering the advantage in shots, xG, efficiency and the difference in league position (hosts 11th vs visitors 2nd), I predict a Qarabağ victory.

Combined average xG for attack and defense points to a moderately offensive match: expected xG is around 1.58 for Qabala (xG for 2.11 vs xG against 1.05) and around 1.39 for Qarabağ (xG for 1.91 vs xG against 0.87). With these values the estimated probability of scoring at least one goal is about 79% for the home side and 75% for the visitors, yielding a product approximating ~60% for BTTS - Yes. There are counter-signals: Qabala at home has only 25% of matches with BTTS and keeps a clean sheet in 56% of home games, and in the last 5 matches they scored just 3 goals (0.6 avg). Qarabağ, however, has a season BTTS of 64% and a last-5 BTTS of 80%, scoring 9 goals (1.8 avg) and conceding 1.4 per match, which supports the Goal/Goal scenario. Considering the higher expected xG (1.58 vs 1.39) and the strong form signal from the visitors, but also the defensive solidity of the hosts, I recommend BTTS - Yes (estimated 60% vs 40%).

Estimated total xG is 2.97 (expected goals for the home side 1.58 = Qabala attack average xG 2.11 and Qarabağ defensive average xG against 1.05; expected goals for the away side 1.39 = Qarabağ attack xG 1.91 and home defensive average 0.87). Seasonal goals averages are 2.13 for Qabala and 2.07 for Qarabağ, and the percentage of matches over 1.5 is 69% (Qabala) and 79% (Qarabağ), supporting a high probability of Over 1.5 (~80%). For the 2.5 line signals are mixed: seasonally Qabala has 31% of matches >2.5 versus 64% for Qarabağ, in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 is 0% for the home team and 80% for the away team, and the model with xG=2.97 gives about 57% for Over 2.5. The 3.5 line looks less likely (seasonal >3.5 25%/29%), the model estimates ~35% for Over 3.5, so the risk is clearly higher. Since the total expected goals 2.97 exceeds the 1.5 line by ~1.47 goals and both teams have high rates >1.5, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

In the first half draws are most common — Qabala were level at the break in 38% of matches (6 occurrences), and Qarabağ in 43% (6), which provides a strong signal for HT draw. After the break Qabala have the offensive edge: they average 1.31 goals in the second half and concede only 0.38, while Qarabağ concede 0.43 in the second half; combined with xG 2.11 (Qabala) versus 1.91 (Qarabağ) this suggests the home side have the potential to decide the match after the interval. Additionally Qabala keep a clean sheet at half-time in 75% of games and finish 56% of full matches without conceding, increasing the probability that after an even HT the hosts will win. Conversely Qarabağ have a high percentage of both-teams-to-score matches (64%), which reduces the likelihood of a goalless outcome, so the strongest signal from the data is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time.