Qarabağ vs Turan: match statistics

Qarabağ has a clear offensive edge this season — 61 goals scored versus Turan’s 39, and at home they average 2.13 goals per match, while Turan average 1.27 goals on the road. The hosts also generate significantly more chances: 16.73 average shots and 6.2 shots on target per home match, with an xG of 2.13, whereas Turan away produce 9.87 shots (3.6 on target) and have an xG of 1.26. Nevertheless, Turan display better recent form — in the last 5 matches they have 2 wins and 3 draws, unbeaten, with a goal record of 7:3 and PPG 1.8, while Qarabağ over the same period have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, 7:6 and PPG 0.8. Defensively both teams are solid (clean sheets 60% for hosts and 60% for visitors), and Turan concede only 0.47 goals away compared to Qarabağ’s 0.6 conceded at home, which gives the visitors a realistic chance of a draw. Considering the advantage in chance creation (more shots, higher xG and 61 vs 39 goals this season) and the hosts’ poorer form, I give Qarabağ a 55% chance to win, 25% for a draw and 20% for a Turan win.

Based on xG and average goals, I estimate the home side to score around 1.23 goals (Qarabağ attack xG 1.32 vs xG against Turan 1.14) and the away side around 1.06 goals (Turan attack xG 1.26 vs xG against Qarabağ 0.86). A model based on these values gives roughly a 46% chance for BTTS - Yes, but using the last 5 matches data (home xG 1.62 and away xG 1.48 with xG against 0.99 and 0.98 respectively) the probability rises to about 51%. Seasonal signals are mixed: Qarabağ has seasonal BTTS 57% and 61 goals scored, while Turan has seasonal BTTS 27% and concedes only 0.47 goals per match on average and records clean sheet expected in 60% of matches. In the last 5 matches both teams scored 7 goals each and have a recent BTTS rate of 60%, which supports Goal/Goal. Overall, taking into account Qarabağ's stronger offense (61 goals and 1.43 goals per match) and the stronger signal from form in the last 5 matches, I give a slight edge to BTTS - Yes at 52% versus 48% for No Goal.

Qarabağ averages 1.43 goals per match (xG 1.32) while Turan averages 1.27 goals (xG 1.26), yielding a combined xG of 2.58 as a measure of both teams' attacking potential. Matching the home xG of 1.32 against Turan’s conceded xG of 1.14 gives roughly 1.23 expected goals for Qarabağ, and Turan’s 1.26 xG against Qarabağ’s conceded xG of 0.86 yields about 1.06 for the visitors — totaling ~2.29 goals. Season-to-date 71% of Qarabağ’s matches and 60% of Turan’s matches exceed 1.5 goals; additionally both teams scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1.4 per team on average), so I rate Over 1.5 highly at 82%. The 2.5 line looks more balanced: hosts have 57% of matches Over 2.5, visitors 27%, and the league average is 46%, hence a moderate probability for Over 2.5 at 46%. Over 3.5 is unlikely (Qarabağ 14% seasonally, Turan 0%), so I assign it only about a 12% chance.

Qarabağ appears the most reliable team to hold the lead at the break: the hosts led at half-time in 50% of matches and score on average 0.79 goals by half-time versus Turan's 0.33, corroborated by the HT goal difference (15 vs 8). Additionally, Qarabağ posts higher xG (1.32 vs 1.26) and more shots on target (4.14 vs 3.6), so their advantage in chance creation is measurable. Conversely, Turan is dangerous after the break: they average 0.93 goals in the second half and win 60% of second halves, with nine goals scored in the 61–90 minute window versus the hosts' three, so they are capable of a turnaround. In the last five matches the visitors’ form is 'dwwdd' (2 wins, 3 draws), but over that shorter period the hosts have preserved a lead from half-time to full-time in 80% of cases, which reinforces the scenario of maintaining the HT lead. As a result I select 1/1 as the strongest signal (30%); alternatives are 1/X (12%) and X/X (18%) reflecting the risk of being pegged back in the second half, while the remaining variants are allocated 40%.