Qingdao Youth Island vs Dalian Zhixing: match statistics

Qingdao Youth Island have home advantage: they are unbeaten at home this season, while Dalian Zhixing have lost 54% of their away matches. The hosts concede an average of 0.69 goals per game at home, compared with 2.00 for the visitors away, which could prove decisive despite the sides creating chances of similar quality—their average xG figures are 1.27 and 1.28, respectively. Dalian’s recent form is a positive: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with one win for Qingdao over the same period. However, the hosts are unbeaten in 5 matches and have conceded just 3 goals in that run, matching the visitors’ record. Qingdao’s high home draw rate of 62% calls for caution, but Dalian’s poor away defending tips the forecast in the hosts’ favor.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: this has occurred in 62% of Qingdao’s matches and 69% of Dalian’s, compared with a league average of 64%. The hosts score an average of 1.77 goals and have yet to draw a blank in any of their matches so far, while the visitors concede an average of 2.00 goals, making a Qingdao goal particularly likely. Dalian score an average of 1.15 goals from an xG of 1.28, giving them a chance to respond, although Qingdao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches. Recent defensive form also warrants caution: over their last five matches, each team conceded an average of just 0.6 goals. Even so, both teams’ scoring frequency this season and Dalian’s defensive vulnerability support BTTS - Yes, though without a decisive edge.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: matches involving both teams have gone over this line in 77% of cases. Qingdao average 1.77 goals scored, while Dalian concede 2.00, giving the hosts a clear chance to score more than once. The xG figures support this: Qingdao average 1.77 xG, while Dalian allow opponents 1.71. Higher lines are less reliable, as Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of each team’s last five matches, and both sides conceded 3 goals over that span. Therefore, despite a projected total of 2.75 goals, the case for at least two goals is stronger than for higher lines.

Qingdao Youth Island have won 69% of their home matches, while Dalian Zhixing have lost 54% of their away games; the hosts score an average of 1.77 goals, and the visitors concede 2.00. The advantage is less clear at half-time: Qingdao have led at the break in 31% of matches, while Dalian have been trailing in 46%, so a half-time draw remains a realistic possibility. The strongest argument for the hosts holding on to their lead is their second-half record: they score an average of 1.15 goals and concede 0.31, compared with 0.69 scored and 1.15 conceded by the visitors. The xG difference also supports the 1/1 pick: the hosts average 1.77 xG, while the visitors allow opponents an average of 1.71, increasing Qingdao’s chances of scoring. However, caution is warranted: Dalian have won three of their last five matches, while Qingdao have won just one, so the hosts’ advantage is far from decisive.