Quilmes vs Colegiales: match statistics

Quilmes concedes only 0.33 goals per game at home on average and records a clean sheet in 67% of matches, whereas Colegiales concede 1.5 goals away, have 20% clean sheets and 0% away wins. The home side creates better chances — Quilmes’ home xG is 1.48, they average 11.78 shots with 3.67 on target and a conversion rate of 9%, while Colegiales away have xG 1.19, 8.5 shots, 2.7 on target and a 4% conversion. Both teams have 18 goals this season, but Colegiales score only 0.3 goals per away match and failed to score in 70% of their away games, whereas Quilmes failed to score in 44% of home fixtures. In the last 5 matches Quilmes average 1.4 points per game (2 wins), Colegiales 1.2 points (2 wins), yet the visitors have an away goal difference of -12 and 80% defeats, which favors the home team. Based on this I forecast a Quilmes win (1) and assign them a significant advantage; given the visitors’ low efficiency I expect a low-scoring outcome.

Statistical analysis points toward a 'no' scenario — I assess BTTS NO probability at 68% versus 32% for YES. Quilmes keep a clean sheet in 60% of home matches and concede on average 0.5 goals per game, while Colegiales score only 0.3 goals on average away and fail to score in 70% of fixtures; the combination of 60% home clean sheets and 70% away scoreless matches is a strong signal against BTTS. A simple estimate for both teams scoring gives: Quilmes score in about 80% of matches (do not score in 20%), Colegiales in about 30% (do not score in 70%), product 0.8×0.3≈24% as a baseline; I factor in seasonal BTTS rates 40%/30% and the league level 39%, which lifts the estimated 'yes' probability to around 32%. Additionally, the hosts generate more chances (12.3 shots and 3.3 on target with a 12% conversion), while the visitors have 8.5 shots and only a 4% conversion, and home xG 1.41 versus away 1.19 shows Quilmes are more threatening offensively while Colegiales underperform their xG. In summary, Quilmes' defensive advantage and Colegiales' poor away effectiveness (0.3 goals away, no goals in 70% of matches, 4% conversion) form the strongest signal for 'no', hence the selection BTTS = 'no'.

I project about 2.10 goals in the match: Quilmes 1.55 and Colegiales 0.55. Quilmes has xG 1.41 and averages 12.3 shots/match with a 12% conversion (12.3×0.12≈1.48), while Colegiales records 8.5 shots and only a 4% conversion (8.5×0.04≈0.34), which limits their scoring threat. Additionally, Colegiales concedes on average 1.5 goals away, whereas Quilmes concedes 0.5 at home, and seasonally both teams have Over1.5 in 60% of fixtures and Over2.5 in only 30% of cases. Given the shooting superiority and conversion gap I recommend betting on Over 1.5 (I assess ~62% for Over1.5 vs 38% for Under1.5), with Over2.5 ≈35% and Over3.5 ≈16%.

Quilmes has a clear advantage: at home they average 1.5 goals scored and concede 0.5, whereas Colegiales on the road score only 0.3 and concede 1.5; xG is 1.41 versus 1.19, and the home side convert better (conversion rate 12% vs 4%). A draw at the break is more likely, since Quilmes were level at half-time in 70% of their home matches (leading in 30%), and Colegiales were behind at the break in 50% of their away games. Quilmes has a strong second half: they average 1.0 goals after the break and win the second half in 60% of cases, additionally registering 12.3 shots (3.3 on target) versus Colegiales’ 8.5 shots. Considering Quilmes win 60% of home matches while Colegiales have no away wins (0%), the scenario draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1) is the most probable. On that basis I assigned X/1 42%, 1/1 25% and X/X 21% as the three strongest scenarios, whereas the visitors leading at half-time or winning the match have virtually zero chances.