Radnik Bijeljina vs Široki Brijeg: match statistics

Radnik Bijeljina is the favorite due to a very strong home defense — the hosts concede just 0.58 goals per home game and keep clean sheets in 58% of home matches, while Široki Brijeg concedes 1.5 goals per away game and records only 33% clean sheets. Radnik creates slightly more chances (home xG 1.18 and 3.33 shots on target) compared to Široki (away xG 0.94 and 2.58 shots on target), although the visitors are more efficient in chance conversion (14% vs 10%). In the last 5 matches Radnik has averaged 1.4 points per game and conceded 3 goals, whereas Široki averages 1.6 points per game while conceding 7 goals, indicating greater defensive instability for the visitors. Additionally, Radnik wins 42% of their home games while Široki win only 17% of away matches, which favors the hosts. Based on this, I back a Radnik victory, though there is a significant probability of a draw given the visitors' high away draw rate (58%).

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 57% (Radnik Bijeljina) and 58% (Široki Brijeg), meaning historically both sides record goals in about 57–58% of matches. Radnik at home has average xG 1.3 and 3.79 shots on target while conceding 1.0 goal per season, whereas Široki has xG 0.94, 2.58 shots on target and concedes 1.5 goals per season (opponent xG 1.78), indicating the hosts create more chances and Široki is statistically more prone to conceding. However, in the last 5 matches Radnik has a very low BTTS rate of 20% and concedes on average 0.6 goals per game, while Široki in the last 5 has BTTS 60% and concedes on average 1.4 goals, suggesting the hosts’ recent form favors a clean sheet. An additional factor is the league context – 75% of matches this season end with a clean sheet for one side, and the average goals per match is 2.12, so the competition’s overall nature favors fewer BTTS outcomes than the seasonal 57–58% imply. Considering Radnik’s strong defensive signal in the last 5 (20% BTTS) and the league’s 75% clean sheet rate, I assign higher probability to the 'No' scenario – 60% vs 40% for 'Yes' (BTTS - Yes).

xG analysis shows the home side have an attacking xG of 1.30 while the visitors have a defensive xG of 1.78, yielding estimated expected goals for Radnik ≈1.54; similarly the visitors have attacking xG 0.94 against the home defensive xG 1.20, giving expected away goals ≈1.07, with total expected goals ≈2.61. A Poisson model with λ=2.61 gives P(≤1)≈26%, so the probability of over 1.5 goals is ≈74%; probability of ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈48%, and ≥4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈27%. Season stats partially confirm this picture: Over 1.5 occurs in 57% of home matches and 58% of away matches, and the home side have scored in 100% of home games; meanwhile Over 2.5 is only 36% for homes and 42% for aways, which weakens the signal for Over 2.5. Radnik average 3.79 shots on target and 10.57 shots per match with a conversion of 10%, Široki average 2.58 on target and 7.17 shots with a conversion of 14%, so the home side generate more chances, supporting a scenario of at least 2 goals. Consequently the strongest and most reliable signal is the Over 1.5 bet (selection), while Over 2.5 is marginal (~48%) and Over 3.5 should be treated as Under.

The most likely half-time outcome is a draw: Radnik are drawing at the break in 57% of their matches, while Široki draw at the break in 58% of away games, with the home side leading at the break in 36% of matches. Radnik have the higher xG (1.30 vs 0.94), attempt more shots (10.57 vs 7.17) and more shots on target (3.79 vs 2.58), and as hosts average 1.71 points per game compared to the visitors' 1.08, giving them an advantage after half-time. By the break Radnik average 0.64 goals and Široki 0.58; hosts concede 0.43 goals in the first half versus 0.67 for away teams, so they are slightly more defensively stable before the break. In second halves Radnik average 1.29 points per game and win 28% of second halves, while Široki average 0.92 points and only 8% second-half wins, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after a draw. Therefore I pick X/1 (draw at half-time, home win) as the best bet (30%), with alternatives X/X (20%) and 1/1 (18%).