Raith Rovers vs Stenhousemuir: match statistics

Analysis of the last five matches indicates an even contest: Raith Rovers scored 5 and conceded 3, while Stenhousemuir scored 6 and conceded 4; both teams have records of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss and average 1.6 points per match over this period. The visitors hold a slight offensive edge — 6 goals in 5 matches (1.2 GPM) versus the hosts' 5 goals (1.0 GPM), whereas Raith Rovers show a marginally better defence: 3 goals conceded in 5 matches (0.6 GPM) vs 4 (0.8 GPM) for Stenhousemuir. In the table both teams sit close (positions 9 and 10), and the goal difference over the last 5 matches is identical (+2), which further confirms parity and minimal objective advantages. For these reasons I expect a draw as the most likely outcome (40%), with home win probability at 35% and away 25%, since the hosts’ slight defensive advantage can offset the visitors’ attacking edge.

In the last 5 matches both teams scored in 40% of cases (2 of 5), indicating a low short-term BTTS rate. Raith Rovers average 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match over the last 5, while Stenhousemuir average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, so both sides concede on average below 1 goal, reducing BTTS probability. xG over the last 5 shows the hosts generate 1.11 xG versus 0.89 xG for the visitors, while opponents created 1.15 xG against Raith and 1.48 xG against Stenhousemuir, suggesting greater defensive vulnerability for the visitors but not a decisively high goal output. The combined average goals of both teams in the last 5 is 2.2 goals per match (1.0 + 1.2), but the low BTTS percentage (40%) and low average concessions (0.6 and 0.8) indicate goals are often concentrated on one side. Therefore I consider the 'No' scenario more likely and assign 60% probability to 'No' and 40% to 'BTTS - Yes'.

In the last 5 matches Raith Rovers averaged 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Stenhousemuir averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. xG for the home side is 1.11 versus 0.89 for the away side, and xG conceded is 1.15 for Raith and 1.48 for Stenhousemuir; averaging these values yields expected 1.30 goals for the home team and 1.02 for the visitors, totaling 2.32. The expected 2.32 exceeds the 1.5 line by 0.82 goals, therefore the signal for Over 1.5 is the strongest (I estimate a high probability). The 2.5 line is slightly in favor of Under, because 2.32 is lower by 0.18, which is also confirmed by recent Over 2.5 percentages: 20% for the home side and 40% for the away side in the last 5 matches. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (below 10%), so I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal based on available data.

The strongest signal is a draw at both half-time and full-time: both teams recorded a draw at the break in 60% of their last 5 matches, and a full-time draw occurred in 40% of their meetings. The first half should be low-scoring — the home side averages 0.8 goals by half-time, the visitors also 0.8, and the home team kept a clean sheet at the break in 80% of cases (conceding on average 0.2 goals in the first half versus 0.4 for their opponents). After the break the statistics are balanced: average goals per match are 1.6 for Raith Rovers and 2.0 for Stenhousemuir, and both teams have 40% wins and 40% draws in their last five games. This combines into the strongest signal X/X (I forecast 30%), with realistic alternatives being draw at HT and home win at FT (X/1, 22%) or draw at HT and away win at FT (X/2, 12%).