Raja Casablanca vs Difaâ El Jadida: match statistics

Raja Casablanca is the favorite in this matchup due to a clear home advantage: at home they average 1.56 goals scored and concede just 0.22, record a 78% clean sheet rate and a 67% home win rate. Offensively the hosts generate more chances: on average 11.78 shots and 4.56 on target per home match with a conversion rate of 13% and average xG of 1.47, while Difaâ El Jadida away averages 7.63 shots, 2.88 on target, xG 1.06 and 0.88 goals per match. Defensively the visitors concede on average 0.75 goals away and have xG against of 1.42, and their clean sheet percentage is 50%, which is inferior to Raja’s defensive quality. Both teams have similar form over the last 5 matches (3 wins each and an average of 2 points), but the superiority in possession (60% vs 48%) and the higher number of shots on target (4.56 vs 2.88) favor the hosts. Based on this I forecast a home win: 68% chance for Raja, 18% for a draw and 14% for an away win.

I’m backing BTTS - Yes (65%) primarily due to recent form over the last 5 matches: Raja has BTTS in 60% of their last 5, Difaâ in 80%, with goal averages of 1.8 (Raja) and 1.4 (Difaâ) and goals conceded 0.8 and 1.0 respectively in those games. Season-long signals are mixed — Raja posts season BTTS of 33% and only 7 goals conceded this season (clean sheet expected tendencies), while Difaâ has season BTTS of 50% and 16 goals conceded, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will find the net. xG analysis shows similar attacking potential: xG_for 1.10 for Raja vs 1.06 for Difaâ, and xG_against around 1.44 and 1.42 suggests both teams allow opponents ~1.4 xG on average. On-target shots 3.0 vs 2.88 and conversion rates 10% vs 11% confirm that scoring opportunities will be created at both ends, and with the league BTTS average at 49% the prevailing scenario is both teams to score.

An xG-based model projects 1.26 goals for Raja (attacking xG 1.10 vs opponent xG conceded 1.42) and 1.25 for Difaâ (attacking xG 1.06 vs opponent xG conceded 1.44), totaling 2.51 expected goals. This aggregate is above the league average of 2.17 and, under a Poisson distribution, corresponds to ~71.5% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~46% for 3+ goals (Over 2.5) and ~25% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Recent form supports this: in the last 5 matches Raja scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and Difaâ 7 goals (1.4 per game), with BTTS in the last 5 at 60% and 80% respectively, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. Season-long Over 2.5 rates are 44% (Raja) and 38% (Difaâ), and Over 3.5 rates are 22% and 0%, so the strongest and most reliable signal from the data points to Over 1.5.

Raja starts strongly: in 4 of their last 5 matches they held a lead at the break (80%), averaging 1.0 first-half goals and conceding 0.0 in those games. Seasonally the hosts average 0.44 goals by half-time and concede 0.33, whereas Difaâ has only 0.13 goals by half-time and is level at the break in 88% of appearances. After the break the visitors are more dangerous — Difaâ averages 0.75 goals in second halves and has scored after half-time in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Raja averages 0.44 second-half goals. Considering the seasonal 44% home win rate versus 25% away win rate and Raja’s advantage in half-time statistics, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (Raja leading at half-time and winning). Due to the visitors’ activity after the break I also assign significant weight to the 1/X (draw after a Raja half-time lead) scenario — hence allocations of 34% for 1/1 and 24% for 1/X.