Rajasthan United vs Dempo: match statistics

Rajasthan United holds a clear home advantage: 67% home win rate, averaging 1.5 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded per match, with 50% clean sheets. Their home xG is 1.74 versus opponents’ 1.25 xG; they average 15.17 shots per game with 4.67 on target and maintain 53% possession, reflecting the quality of chances created. Dempo have yet to win away (0% wins, 60% losses), average 0.8 goals scored away, concede 1.8 and have 40% of away matches without scoring. In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 8 goals versus 7 for the hosts, but their away efficiency (3.4 shots on target, 7% conversion) and negative away goal difference (-5) are inferior to Rajasthan’s home strengths (home goal difference +4 and 10% conversion). Given the hosts’ defensive superiority, higher quantity and quality of shots, and Dempo’s lack of away victories, I forecast a home win.

I back BTTS - Yes at 75% vs 25% No. Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 60% (Rajasthan 60% and Dempo 60%), while the league average is 65%, indicating a strong trend of goals from both sides. Rajasthan score on average 2.0 goals at home with xG 1.58 and register 5.4 shots on target per game, whereas Dempo have a seasonal average of 0.8 goals but have averaged 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches with xG 1.47, so the visitors are creating chances. Dempo concede 1.8 goals on average this season (xG against 1.77), and Rajasthan have a conversion rate of 20% versus Dempo’s 7%, which increases the likelihood of the hosts scoring and the visitors responding. In summary, although Rajasthan keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches and Dempo in 20%, the advantage in xG, conversion and a high league BTTS points to a Goal/Goal outcome.

I project 1.68 goals for Rajasthan United and 1.30 for Dempo, total 2.98; values derived as the average of attack xG (1.58 and 1.47) and opponent xG conceded (1.77 and 1.13) — hence 1.68 and 1.30. With a combined expectation of 2.98, the Poisson distribution yields about a 79.8% chance of more than 1.5 goals (1−P(0)−P(1)≈79.8%), supported by seasonal indicators: the home team has Over1.5 in 100% of home matches and Dempo in 80%. For the 2.5 line, Poisson calculates ~57.2% for Over (1−P(0..2)), and seasonal Over2.5 rates are 80% for the home side and 60% for the away side; additionally the hosts register 5.4 shots on target vs 3.4 for Dempo and conversion rates of 20% vs 7%, which provides moderate support for Over2.5. Over3.5 appears less likely (Poisson ~34.8%) and seasonal figures are 20% for the hosts and 40% for the visitors, therefore the strongest and best signal is Over 1.5 (over) with the highest probability and clear seasonal backing.

Seasonal data clearly favor Rajasthan United: the hosts average 2.0 goals per match versus Dempo’s 0.8 and collect an average of 1.6 points per game compared to the visitors’ 0.4. At half-time Rajasthan led in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and average 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded by the break, whereas Dempo average 0.2 scored and 1.2 conceded in the first half. The hosts register more on-target shots (5.4 vs 3.4), have a higher conversion rate (20% vs 7%) and superior xG (1.58 vs 1.47), which suggests greater ability to turn chances into goals and to maintain a lead at the break. At the same time, in the last five matches the hosts had a 0% rate of leading at half-time versus 60% for the visitors, so the risk of a draw at half-time is non-negligible. Considering these figures, the strongest signal is 1/1 (approximately 44%); I also consider X/1 (20%) and X/X (16%); scenarios with the visitors leading at the break remain unlikely.