Raufoss vs Lyn: match statistics

Lyn are the favorites for this fixture: the visitors average 2.0 goals away, register 14.5 shots with 8.0 on target, whereas Raufoss at home average 1.0 goals and 10.5/3.5 (shots/shots on target). Raufoss concede on average 2.0 goals per home match and have 0% clean sheets, while Lyn concede only 1.0 on the road and have 50% clean sheets, giving the visitors a clear defensive edge in terms of results. Quality-of-chance comparison also favors Lyn: visitors’ average xG For is 1.88 versus 1.29 for the hosts, and Lyn also have a higher shot conversion rate 14% vs 10%. In the last 5 matches Lyn have scored 6 goals and average 0.6 points per game, while Raufoss have 4 goals and 0.2 points per game, so I predict an away win.

Raufoss concedes on average 3.33 goals per match this season and has not kept a clean sheet at home yet (0%), which strongly increases the likelihood of opponents scoring. Lyn scores on average 2.0 goals per match, averages 8.0 shots on target per game and has xG_for 1.88, so they possess clear offensive potential against the hosts' weak defense. The hosts, meanwhile, have a seasonal goals average of 0.67 and a low conversion rate of 6%, but seasonal BTTS for Raufoss is only 33% versus as high as 80% in the last 5 matches, indicating a marked shift recently. xG shows 1.49 for Raufoss vs 1.88 for Lyn, xG against 1.86 vs 1.93, and the league has BTTS 55% and an average of 3.43 goals per match, so both teams generate scoring opportunities. Based on these numbers I prefer BTTS - Yes (70%) vs 30%, mainly due to Raufoss’s high goals conceded (3.33), Lyn’s 8.0 shots on target and the hosts’ 80% BTTS in their last 5 matches.

Both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season (Raufoss 100% and Lyn 100%), so historically every meeting of theirs has finished with at least 2 goals. An xG-based model yields expected goals of 1.71 for the home side ((1.49 + 1.93)/2) and 1.87 for the visitors ((1.88 + 1.86)/2), totalling 3.58 expected goals, which strongly supports a high-scoring game scenario. Lyn averages 14.5 shots and 8 on target per match with a 14% conversion rate, while Raufoss records 11.33 shots and 3 on target with a 6% conversion, so the visitors are markedly more efficient offensively. Over 2.5 stats are 67% for Raufoss and 100% for Lyn (average ~83.5%), and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred in 60%/80% of fixtures respectively, therefore I estimate Over 2.5 at ~78% probability. Given the 100% Over 1.5 rates and combined xG of 3.58, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Statistics clearly favor Lyn: the visitors average 2.0 goals away versus just 0.67 scored by Raufoss at home, while Raufoss concedes an average of 3.33 goals per match at their stadium. Raufoss led at the break in 0% of home games and trailed at the break in 67% of cases (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 0.0, trailingAtHTPercentage_home 67.0), whereas Lyn led at the break in 50% of matches and averages 1.5 goals before half-time (leadingAtHTPercentage_away 50.0, scoredAVGHT_away 1.5). Lyn generates higher-quality chances: xG 1.88 versus Raufoss 1.49, on average 8.0 shots on target against 3.0 and a conversion rate of 14% versus 6%, increasing the likelihood that they will score and maintain a lead. Raufoss defends poorly particularly in the closing stages (conceded 2 goals in minutes 61–75 and 3 goals in minutes 76–90) and already concedes an average of 1.67 goals by half-time at home (concededAVGHT_home 1.67), so a home turnaround looks unlikely. Therefore the safest scenario is Lyn leading at half-time and the visitors winning after 90 minutes; I assign this scenario a 44% probability, with alternatives X/2 at 18% and 2/X at 10%.