RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli: match statistics
RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
RB Leipzig played against St. Pauli in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on May 9, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
RB Leipzig has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 2.40 points per game. St. Pauli has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 0.40 points per game.
Scoring records
RB Leipzig scores 1.97 goals per game and allows 1.31. St. Pauli scores 0.84 and allows 1.72. Games in this league average 3.22 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 59% of RB Leipzig's games and 53% of St. Pauli's. The Over 2.5 rates are 69% and 53%, compared with league averages of 62% for BTTS and 63% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
RB Leipzig has the higher season xG average, 1.79 to 1.21 per game. RB Leipzig takes 15.9 shots per game, while St. Pauli takes 10.3.
First-half and second-half trends
RB Leipzig leads at halftime in 41% of its games and scores 1.03 goals per game after halftime. St. Pauli leads at halftime in 19% and scores 0.50 after halftime.
When the teams score
RB Leipzig's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (12 goals). For St. Pauli, it is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Bundesliga games average 3.22 goals. Both teams score in 62% of games, and 63% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win (1). RB Leipzig sit 3rd and have scored 63 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 27; at home they average 2.38 goals per game with xG 2.02 and 17.56 average shots, while the visitors average 0.69 goals away with xG 1.10 on 10 shots. Defensively Leipzig concede 1.19 goals at home on average, and St. Pauli concede 1.69 away; hosts keep 38% clean sheets at home versus 19% for the visitors. Efficiency and quality of chances favor the hosts: 7.44 shots on target and a 14% conversion rate for Leipzig vs 2.5 on target and 7% conversion for St. Pauli, and the visitors failed to score in 44% of away matches while Leipzig have not had a goalless home game (0%). Considering form (Leipzig 4 wins in last 5, averaging 2.4 pts per game vs St. Pauli 0 wins, 0.4 pts), xG (2.02 vs 1.10) and season goal difference (63-27), I assign a 70% probability to a home win, 18% to a draw and 12% to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
RB Leipzig has BTTS in 63% of matches this season and 80% in the last 5, while St. Pauli has 44% this season and 60% in the last 5; the league average BTTS is 61%, so the general trend favors both teams scoring. Leipzig averages 1.0 goals this season but 2.0 in the last 5 (10 goals), St. Pauli has 0.69 this season and 0.6 in the last 5 (3 goals); despite a weaker attack, St. Pauli concedes a lot — 1.69 this season and 2.2 in the last 5 (11 conceded). From a chance-creation perspective, xG for RB is 1.31 versus 1.1 for St. Pauli, with xG against 1.4 for RB and 1.55 for St. Pauli, which suggests both teams allow defensive risk and generate opportunities. Additionally RB averages 4.31 shots on target versus 2.5 for St. Pauli, and clean sheet rates are only 13% and 19%, so the lack of clean sheets reinforces the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering these figures (63%/80% vs 44%/60%, xG and low clean sheet percentages) I assess BTTS at 72% for 'Yes' and 28% for 'No' — the safest pick is 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I estimate a total of 2.92 goals: 1.63 for RB Leipzig and 1.29 for St. Pauli, calculated from seasonal xG (RB 1.31, St. Pauli 1.10) and opponents’ defensive xG (St. Pauli 1.55, RB 1.40) adjusted for form over the last 5 matches (RB xG 1.92, St. Pauli xG against 1.75). A Poisson distribution with lambda=2.92 indicates ~79% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~56% for Over 2.5 goals and ~34% for Over 3.5 goals, giving the strongest signal for overs on the lower lines. RB have scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game), with xG 1.92 and 4.31 shots on target per game, while St. Pauli have 3 goals in their last 5 (0.6 per game) and record 2.5 shots on target per game — this highlights the home side’s offensive edge. Seasonally RB have 69% of home matches Over 2.5 and 81% Over 1.5, while St. Pauli have 38% and 81% respectively; the share of matches where both teams scored is 63% for RB and 44% for St. Pauli, so BTTS is possible but the hosts hold a clear advantage. In summary, the best pick is Over 1.5 given the ~79% probability, RB’s good form (2.0 g/last 5) and seasonal support (81% Over 1.5), whereas Over 2.5 has moderate backing (~56%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back 1/1 as the most likely scenario: RB Leipzig have won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and score on average 0.8 goals by half-time in those games, while St. Pauli have not won in their last 5 (0%) and average 0.2 goals by half-time. The home side register 4.31 on-target shots at home versus 2.5 for St. Pauli, and xG is 1.31 against 1.10 for the visitors, suggesting greater danger from the hosts already in the first half. Historically Leipzig led at the break in 19% of home matches, but considering recent form (40% leads at the break in the last 5) I estimate approximately a 35% chance to lead at half-time; if the hosts lead at the break I rate the conversion to a win highly (around 80%), hence a strong signal for 1/1 (roughly 28%). St. Pauli have only a 13% away win rate and concede on average 1.69 goals per match this season, and have recorded 3 losses in their last 5 (60%), which reduces the probability of a turnaround after the break; alternatives with a half-time draw (X/1 22%, X/X 16%) are my second and third choices.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| RB Leipzig | St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
RB Leipzig is 500% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / game - RB Leipzig · 0.4 pts / game - St. Pauli
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
RB Leipzig is 135% better for: goals scored per game.
1.97 goals / game - RB Leipzig · 0.84 goals / game - St. Pauli
RB Leipzig is 31% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.31 goals / game - RB Leipzig · 1.72 goals / game - St. Pauli
RB Leipzig scores in 91% of games (29 of 32 meczów), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 meczów).
St. Pauli scores in 59% of games (19 of 32 meczów), while RB Leipzig keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - RB Leipzig
Over / Under - St. Pauli
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
RB Leipzig is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.66 pts / game - RB Leipzig · 0.97 pts / game - St. Pauli
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
RB Leipzig - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 41% of games and wins 59%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 19%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| RB Leipzig | Liga | St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 3.28 | 3.22 | ▼ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 59% | 62% | ▼ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 63% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 34% | 21% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | • 75% |
| Goal after half-time | • 84% | 85% | ▼ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from RB Leipzig's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against St. Pauli. Games average 2.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?
The Bundesliga match finished RB Leipzig 2:1 St. Pauli. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?
RB Leipzig score 1.97 goals per game on average and St. Pauli 0.84. The Bundesliga average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 59% of RB Leipzig's matches and 53% of St. Pauli's.
What form are RB Leipzig and St. Pauli in?
Over the last 5 games RB Leipzig have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and St. Pauli 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.