Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruña: match statistics

A draw appears to be the most likely outcome, as Deportivo have avoided defeat in all three away matches, although two ended in a share of the points. The visitors are more clinical in front of goal: away from home, they average 1.67 goals from 0.97 xG, while Real Sociedad score just 0.67 goals at home despite generating 1.64 xG. The hosts do create more chances, however, averaging 13.67 shots compared with Deportivo’s 8, which could help them overcome their poor finishing. Both teams concede an average of 1.33 goals in these conditions, and Deportivo have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home. In their last five matches, the visitors have scored 8 goals and conceded 6, while Real Sociedad have scored 7 and conceded 9. Deportivo’s form advantage is therefore slight and not enough to make them clear favorites to win.

Both teams frequently feature in matches with goals at both ends: the BTTS rate is 75% for Real Sociedad and 100% for Deportivo, compared with a league average of 57%. In their last 5 matches, this outcome occurred in 60% and 80% of games respectively, while the teams averaged 1.4 and 1.6 goals scored. The case for the home side to score is strengthened by Deportivo's failure to keep a clean sheet, with opponents creating chances against them worth an average xG of 1.64. The visitors also have a chance to find the net: Real have not kept a clean sheet and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches. Some caution is warranted given Deportivo's lower xG of 0.97 and the fact that Real failed to score in 25% of their matches, but the overall picture leans more strongly towards BTTS - Yes.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line was cleared in 75% of Real Sociedad’s matches and 100% of Deportivo’s. Both teams conceded in every match included in the analysis, while Deportivo scored in 100% of its matches, supporting a result with at least two goals. Real Sociedad create chances worth an average of 1.35 xG, while Deportivo concede 1.64 xG; at the other end, Deportivo average 0.97 xG against 1.41 xG conceded by the hosts. The combined projection of 2.68 goals supports the Over 1.5 pick, but higher lines are less compelling: Over 2.5 goals landed in 25% of the hosts’ matches and 33% of the visitors’.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Deportivo were level at the break in all three of their matches so far, while in the teams’ last five games this result occurred three times for the away side and twice for the hosts. A draw at full-time is also supported by the fact that Real Sociedad have drawn 50% of their matches and Deportivo 67%, and Deportivo are yet to lose. However, the hosts create better chances, averaging 1.35 xG compared with the visitors’ 0.97, which reduces the advantage Deportivo gain from their better results. The strongest alternative remains an away win after a draw at half-time, as the visitors score an average of 1.0 goal per match after the break, compared with Real Sociedad’s 0.5. Even so, the combination of frequent draws for both teams and Deportivo’s regular draws at half-time gives the strongest signal in favor of the X/X scenario.