Renate vs Novara: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced match with an edge for a draw. Renate shows solid home form with a 38% win rate and an average of 1.19 goals per match, but their recent results have been inconsistent. Novara is characterized by an exceptional tendency for draws, especially away (69% draws), which is a key factor in this prediction. The visitors are in good form with 1.8 points per match in their last five games and have not lost any of them. Renate has a slight advantage in xG (1.61 vs 1.34), but Novara's defensive solidity (44% clean sheets away) and their tendency to share points make a draw the most likely outcome of this match.
Renate vs Novara: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Renate played against Novara in Serie C Group A (Italy). The game was played on March 28, 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Recent form
Renate has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Novara has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 1.80 points per game.
Scoring records
Renate scores 1.30 goals per game and allows 0.94. Novara scores 1.06 and allows 0.88. Games in this league average 2.29 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of Renate's games and 52% of Novara's. The Over 2.5 rates are 45% and 27%, compared with league averages of 50% for BTTS and 41% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Renate has the higher season xG average, 1.52 to 1.43 per game. Renate takes 11.8 shots per game, while Novara takes 11.3.
First-half and second-half trends
Renate leads at halftime in 52% of its games and scores 0.61 goals per game after halftime. Novara leads at halftime in 24% and scores 0.55 after halftime.
When the teams score
Renate's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (11 goals). For Novara, it is minutes 61-75 (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Serie C Group A games average 2.29 goals. Both teams score in 50% of games, and 41% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced match with an edge for a draw. Renate shows solid home form with a 38% win rate and an average of 1.19 goals per match, but their recent results have been inconsistent. Novara is characterized by an exceptional tendency for draws, especially away (69% draws), which is a key factor in this prediction. The visitors are in good form with 1.8 points per match in their last five games and have not lost any of them. Renate has a slight advantage in xG (1.61 vs 1.34), but Novara's defensive solidity (44% clean sheets away) and their tendency to share points make a draw the most likely outcome of this match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The data indicates moderate BTTS chances, but with a slight edge for the scenario where one of the teams fails to score. Novara has a very solid defense (0.81 goals conceded per match and 44% clean sheets), and in the last 5 matches they have conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per match), which supports the 'BTTS: No' pick. At the same time, the league and both teams' profiles suggest rather low scoring (Over 2.5: Renate 35%, Novara 19%), which often correlates with no BTTS. Renate has decent offensive parameters (xG for 1.52 per match, 4.24 shots on target per match), so the most realistic risk for the 'no' pick is a goal from the hosts combined with Novara failing to score. Novara is average in attack (0.94 goals per match), and Renate defensively concedes relatively little (0.94 goals conceded per match; xGA 1.09 per match), which limits the probability of both teams scoring. The last 5 matches of both sides have BTTS at only 40% each, which further strengthens the 'no' pick as more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The goal profile of both teams supports a low/moderate scoreline: Novara has a very high Under 2.5 (81%) and Under 3.5 (81%) rate, and Renate also frequently stays under 2.5 (65%) and 3.5 (76%). Seasonal goal averages are modest (Renate 1.18 scored at home, Novara 0.94 away) and both defenses look solid based on GA numbers (Renate 0.94, Novara 0.81). Although xG metrics suggest chance creation (Renate xG 1.52, Novara xG 1.34), shot conversion is average (10% and 9%), which limits the conversion of advantage into goals. Additionally, Novara has a high clean sheet percentage (44%) and in the last 5 matches conceded few goals (0.4), favoring a scenario with a maximum of 3 goals. Therefore, the strongest signal is the Under 3.5 line, which has the highest probability of realization with an expected 2.17 goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is the high propensity for draws: Renate draws 53% of their matches, while Novara draws a significant 69%, which naturally boosts the X/X (draw/draw) variant. The first half is expected to be cautious and balanced, as Renate are level at the break in 65% of their games. Both teams have a low average of first-half goals (HT average: 1.00 vs 0.88) and high percentages of clean sheets at half-time (53% vs 69%). Novara defends solidly (0.81 goals conceded per match, 44% clean sheets overall), and in their last 5 matches, they have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, limiting Renate's chances of holding a lead at the break or pulling away. On the other hand, Renate have better chance creation (xG for 1.52) and a stronger second half (1.71 points per game in second halves), making the X/1 (draw at HT, home win at FT) a realistic alternative. However, given the 'draw-prone' profiles of both sides, a draw after 90 minutes remains the most likely outcome. Additionally, low first-half over rates (Over 1.5 HT: 35% vs 19%) support the thesis of a prolonged level score.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Renate | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Novara is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - Renate · 1.8 pts / game - Novara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Renate is 23% better for: goals scored per game.
1.3 goals / game - Renate · 1.06 goals / game - Novara
Novara is 7% better for: goals allowed per game.
0.94 goals / game - Renate · 0.88 goals / game - Novara
Renate scores in 82% of games (27 of 33 meczów), while Novara keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 meczów).
Novara scores in 70% of games (23 of 33 meczów), while Renate keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Renate
Over / Under - Novara
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Renate is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.88 pts / game - Renate · 1.27 pts / game - Novara
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Renate - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 52% of games and wins 42%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.4 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Novara - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 24% of games and wins 24%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Renate
Novara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group A).
Teams vs league
| Renate | Liga | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.24 | 2.29 | ▼ 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 50% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 45% | 41% | ▼ 27% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 30% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 66% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | • 70% | 71% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Record from Renate's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Novara. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Renate vs Novara?
The Serie C Group A match finished Renate 3:1 Novara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Renate vs Novara?
Renate score 1.30 goals per game on average and Novara 1.06. The Serie C Group A average is 2.29 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Renate's matches and 52% of Novara's.
What form are Renate and Novara in?
Over the last 5 games Renate have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Novara 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Renate vs Novara?
The statistical background for Renate vs Novara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.