Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison: match statistics

Forward Madison sit 3rd, while Richmond Kickers are only 16th. Across the season, the visitors have won 12 matches and suffered 5 defeats, compared with 5 wins and 12 losses for the hosts. The Madison side also has a clearly superior goal difference, scoring 41 goals and conceding 22, whereas Richmond have scored 20 and allowed 41 goals. Recent form also favors the visitors, who have collected 8 points and conceded just 5 goals in their last five matches, while the hosts have taken 4 points, scored only 2 goals, and conceded 9. Richmond can create chances at home, as shown by an xG of 1.66 and an average of 5.2 shots on target, but they fail to score in 40% of their home fixtures. Forward Madison have weaker away numbers, including a 45% defeat rate and an average of 1.27 goals conceded, so the hosts retain a realistic chance of securing a draw. However, the visitors’ superior season-long quality and current defensive stability point to an away win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Richmond Kickers’ current attacking struggles: they have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while both teams scored in only 20% of those fixtures. Forward Madison have shown a more stable defensive setup, conceding an average of 1.0 goal during this period with an xG against of 1.33, which limits the hosts’ chances of breaking through. The visitors should nevertheless find a way to score, as Richmond have recently conceded 1.8 goals per match and allowed opponents an xG of 1.89, while Madison have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.03 xG per game across their last five league fixtures. The hosts’ season-long data is more attacking, with an average of 2.8 goals and BTTS at 70%, but their current form clearly contradicts this. Therefore, the more likely scenario is one in which at least one team—Richmond in particular—fails to score.

Richmond has scored just 0.4 goals per game across its last five matches, despite an earlier season average of 2.8, which significantly lowers the hosts’ attacking potential. Forward Madison are in better offensive form, averaging 1.4 goals and an xG of 2.03 over their last five matches, while Richmond conceded 1.8 goals per game during that period. At the same time, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of their last five matches, while the visitors conceded just 1.0 goal on average. Season-long results for games featuring Over 3.5 goals are also not particularly high: 50% for Richmond and 27% for Forward Madison. The projection of 2.40 goals therefore points to an advantage for Under 3.5, as the most likely range is two or three goals.

Richmond Kickers have won 70% of their home matches and remain unbeaten, scoring an average of 2.8 goals while conceding just 0.8. The hosts were leading at the break in 8 of their 10 home games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded before half-time, while Forward Madison were trailing at half-time in 36% of their away appearances. Richmond’s superiority is also evident in their chance creation: their xG stands at 2.08 compared with 1.24 for the visitors, while their average number of shots on target is 7.1 versus 3.64 for Madison. After the break, the hosts continue to score an average of 1.4 goals, whereas Madison manage only 0.36, further supporting the scenario of Richmond maintaining their lead until full-time. Caution is warranted due to Richmond’s poor current run, with just 0.4 goals scored across their last five matches, but their strong home data still provide the clearest support for the HT/FT 1/1 outcome.