Rilski Sportist vs Ludogorets II: match statistics

The favorite in this fixture appears to be Ludogorets II: in their last 5 matches they have scored 8 goals and collected 10 points (an average of 2.0 points per match), whereas Rilski Sportist have 7 goals and 9 points (an average of 1.8 points per match). The visitors show a slightly better defensive record over this period — they conceded 4 goals (0.8 per match) versus 5 conceded by the hosts (1.0 per match). Both teams are offensively active: their last 5 meetings have produced a combined 15 goals, averaging 3.0 goals per match, which suggests an open game with chances at both ends. Recent form confirms a slight edge for the visitors: Rilski run WWLLW (3 wins, 2 losses), while Ludogorets II have DWWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), meaning the visitors have fewer defeats and more consistent results. Based on this I forecast an away win, though the result may be tight; I propose probability distribution of 30% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 45% for the visitors.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 60% in their last 5 matches, meaning in 3 of 5 games for each side both teams scored. Rilski averages 1.4 goals scored and concedes 1.0, while Ludogorets II scores 1.6 and concedes 0.8; these values (1.4 vs 1.6 and 1.0 vs 0.8) suggest both sides generate offensive chances and are prone to conceding. In the last 5 matches Rilski has scored 7 and conceded 5, and Ludogorets II has scored 8 and conceded 4, which effectively confirms a higher goals-per-game average on both sides and a tendency toward open results. xG data are partially incomplete — xG for the home side is 0.0 (no data), while for the away side xG is 1.4 with xG against 1.7, indicating matches with a high number of chances and a risk of conceding goals. Given the identical 60% BTTS rate for both teams, the goal averages of 1.4 and 1.6 and the actual 7-5 and 8-4 outcomes in the last 5, I assign BTTS 'Yes' a 65% probability versus 35% 'No' and recommend the 'yes' selection.

In the last 5 matches the home side scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and the visitors 8 goals (1.6 per match), yielding an average of 3.0 goals per game. The home team conceded 1.0 goals on average, while Ludogorets II conceded 0.8, and both teams had 60% of matches over 2.5 goals in their last 5 appearances. Available xG for the visitors is 1.4 with xG conceded 1.7, indicating they generate chances but are vulnerable to conceding; lack of xG data for the home team limits forecast precision. Based on this, expected finishes are approximately 1.4 for the home side and 1.6 for the visitors (3.0 total), so the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (high probability), with a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (~65%).

Data show that Ludogorets II led at the break in 60% of the last five matches (3 of 5), while Rilski Sportist did not lead in any of those games (0%); the average goals by halftime were 1.0 for the visitors and 0.0 for the hosts. However, Rilski dominates after the break: the hosts score an average of 2.0 goals in the second half, conceding none (0.0) during that period, and won the second-half segment in 100% of the analyzed games, whereas Ludogorets II scores an average of 0.6 goals after the break and wins that segment in only 20% of matches. As a result, the strongest signal is Ludogorets II leading at the break with a later turnaround by Rilski (HT/FT = 2/1), so I assign this scenario the highest probability of 30%. The second most likely option is the visitors maintaining their lead to the end (2/2) at 21%, and the alternative of a draw at halftime followed by a home win (X/1) receives 15% due to 50% of the hosts being level at the break in the last five matches. Remaining combinations carry smaller weights (e.g., draw–draw 9%, draw–away win 6%, home leading at the break with low values), reflecting the rarity of Rilski leading before the break.