RSB Berkane vs CR Khemis Zemamra: match statistics

RSB Berkane holds a clear advantage in chance quality and efficiency: at home they average 1.8 goals per game, 4.7 on-target shots from 12.5 attempts and a 14% conversion, while CR Khemis Zemamra away records 1.2 goals, 3.6 on-target shots and a 10% conversion. The defensive differential favors the hosts — Berkane concedes 1.2 goals per home match on average, whereas opponents concede 1.8 goals on the road; average xG is 1.67 for the hosts versus 1.35 for the visitors. Form over the last 5 matches also supports the hosts: Berkane scored 9 goals and averages 2.0 points per game in their last 5, while Khemis has 5 goals and 1.4 points per game. Additionally, the hosts win 60% of home matches, lose only 10% and have 10% of matches without scoring, whereas the visitors lose 60% of away matches and have 30% of matches without a goal. Considering higher seasonal efficiency (30 goals vs 19), superior xG (1.67 vs 1.35) and form advantage, I allocate higher probabilities to the hosts: Home 65%, Draw 20%, Away 15%.

A strong signal for BTTS - Yes is that both teams had BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, and CR Khemis Zemamra records BTTS in 60% this season with only 10% clean sheets and an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game. Offsetting this is RSB Berkane’s seasonal defense — 60% clean sheets and only 0.7 goals conceded per game (home seasonal BTTS 40%), which reduces their seasonal propensity for goal exchanges. Nevertheless, in the last 5 matches the home side scores on average 1.8 goals with xG 1.51 and concedes 1.2, while the visitors in their last 5 have xG 1.42 and average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, so both sides generate ~1.4–1.5 xG and create goal-scoring opportunities. Considering the stronger signals from the last 5 matches and the visitors’ low clean sheet rate (10%) versus their high seasonal BTTS share (60%), I estimate the probability of BTTS at 65% for Yes and 35% for No.

A model combining current xG and form yields expected goals of 1.36 for RSB Berkane and 1.33 for CR Khemis Zemamra, totaling 2.69 goals. In the last 5 matches Berkane averaged 1.8 goals scored (9 in 5) and conceded 1.2 (6), while Khemis had 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded (5 and 5), with recent xG of 1.51 versus 1.42. Seasonal indicators show the home side has 60% clean sheets at home and 40% of matches over 1.5, whereas the visitors have only 10% clean sheets but 90% of matches over 1.5 and 70% over 2.5. Additionally the visitors produce more shots (11.8 vs 9.1) and shots on target (3.6 vs 2.6), which together with the higher share of goal games increases the likelihood of goals. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (probability 75%), Over 2.5 has only moderate probability 51% and Over 3.5 about 29%.

I predict a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1). The hosts were level at the break in 70% of their home matches and average only 0.1 goals in the first half, which favors a draw at Half-Time. The visitors concede on average 1.8 goals per match and 0.9 goals in the first half, and they have conceded 6 goals in minutes 31–45, so they are vulnerable to giving up goals before and immediately after the break. Additionally, in their last five matches the hosts have a 60% win rate, scored nine first-half goals and led at the break in 40% of games, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after Half-Time and an eventual RSB Berkane victory.